{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\0. replication, based on Kenwick and Vasquez, 2017, JOP, paper\replication based on K&V, 2017, JOP\replication materials\alliance and war.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}13 Jun 2025, 12:15:10

{com}. do "C:\0. replication, based on Kenwick and Vasquez, 2017, JOP, paper\replication based on K&V, 2017, JOP\replication materials\alliance and war.do"
{txt}
{com}. * June 13, 2025
. 
.  set matsize 500
{txt}
{com}.  set more off
{txt}
{com}.  
. use "C:\0. replication, based on Kenwick and Vasquez, 2017, JOP, paper\replication based on K&V, 2017, JOP\data collections_Kenwick and Vasquez, 2017, JOP\jl_modified2.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. sort year
{txt}
{com}. 
.  
. *** Appendix 1
. 
. corr dispute fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo
{txt}(obs=1,077,992)

             {c |}  dispute    fbdef   nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_dis~e  capprop     jdem s_un_glo
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 81}
     dispute {c |}{res}   1.0000
       {txt}fbdef {c |}{res}  -0.0162   1.0000
      {txt}nfbdef {c |}{res}   0.0039  -0.1977   1.0000
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}{res}   0.0167  -0.0535   0.0377   1.0000
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}{res}   0.0135  -0.0333   0.0128   0.0519   1.0000
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}{res}  -0.0691   0.0762  -0.0369  -0.0655   0.0223   1.0000
     {txt}capprop {c |}{res}   0.0098  -0.1782  -0.0002   0.0830   0.0659   0.0000   1.0000
        {txt}jdem {c |}{res}  -0.0042  -0.0368   0.0509  -0.0510   0.0065  -0.0200   0.0000   1.0000
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}{res}   0.0070  -0.1431  -0.2736  -0.0780  -0.0195  -0.2540   0.0000  -0.0050   1.0000

{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *** Table 2 *** 
. 
. *Model 1
. logit dispute fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         , cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-16773.772}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-14590.963}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -13929.74}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13910.373}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13910.236}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13910.236}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res} 1,077,992
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   1417.48
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-13910.236{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1707

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,916} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.326612{col 26}{space 2} .1489841{col 37}{space 1}   -8.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.618615{col 67}{space 3}-1.034608
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3461796{col 26}{space 2}  .087166{col 37}{space 1}    3.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1753375{col 67}{space 3} .5170218
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .627924{col 26}{space 2} .1052736{col 37}{space 1}    5.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4215915{col 67}{space 3} .8342565
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8774087{col 26}{space 2} .1458055{col 37}{space 1}    6.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5916352{col 67}{space 3} 1.163182
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9709689{col 26}{space 2} .0415548{col 37}{space 1}  -23.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.052415{col 67}{space 3}-.8895231
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3240324{col 26}{space 2} .1343143{col 37}{space 1}    2.41{col 46}{space 3}0.016{col 54}{space 4} .0607811{col 67}{space 3} .5872836
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4021314{col 26}{space 2} .1043859{col 37}{space 1}   -3.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6067241{col 67}{space 3}-.1975388
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.970924{col 26}{space 2} .2372148{col 37}{space 1}   -4.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.435856{col 67}{space 3}-.5059916
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1428059{col 26}{space 2}  .007898{col 37}{space 1}  -18.08{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1582857{col 67}{space 3}-.1273261
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0022257{col 26}{space 2} .0001578{col 37}{space 1}   14.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0019163{col 67}{space 3}  .002535
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-9.44e-06{col 26}{space 2} 8.54e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -11.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0000111{col 67}{space 3}-7.77e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.321897{col 26}{space 2} .3747959{col 37}{space 1}    8.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.587311{col 67}{space 3} 4.056484
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         est store mod1
{txt}
{com}. *Model 2
. logit dispute fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year<1946, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5656.9801}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5264.0036}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5164.9604}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5162.4227}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5162.4111}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5162.4111}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   211,128
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}    858.00
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-5162.4111{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0874

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:5,180} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.216397{col 26}{space 2} .4827202{col 37}{space 1}   -4.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.162512{col 67}{space 3}-1.270283
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2303783{col 26}{space 2} .1125752{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.041{col 54}{space 4}  .009735{col 67}{space 3} .4510215
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.297086{col 26}{space 2} .1273204{col 37}{space 1}   10.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.047543{col 67}{space 3}  1.54663
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3597137{col 26}{space 2} .1755054{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.040{col 54}{space 4} .0157295{col 67}{space 3} .7036979
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5514569{col 26}{space 2} .0424146{col 37}{space 1}  -13.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.634588{col 67}{space 3}-.4683258
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5951895{col 26}{space 2} .1864574{col 37}{space 1}    3.19{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .2297397{col 67}{space 3} .9606393
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9919993{col 26}{space 2} .2383002{col 37}{space 1}   -4.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.459059{col 67}{space 3}-.5249394
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0608906{col 26}{space 2} .2087243{col 37}{space 1}   -0.29{col 46}{space 3}0.770{col 54}{space 4}-.4699827{col 67}{space 3} .3482015
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1129134{col 26}{space 2} .0106838{col 37}{space 1}  -10.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1338533{col 67}{space 3}-.0919734
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0017957{col 26}{space 2} .0002262{col 37}{space 1}    7.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0013525{col 67}{space 3}  .002239
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-7.55e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.33e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -5.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0000102{col 67}{space 3}-4.95e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4755449{col 26}{space 2} .3347359{col 37}{space 1}   -1.42{col 46}{space 3}0.155{col 54}{space 4}-1.131615{col 67}{space 3} .1805253
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         est store mod2
{txt}
{com}. *Model 3
. logit dispute fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year>1945, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -10923.28}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-9601.3607}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8433.3144}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8392.3251}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8391.3922}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8391.3919}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   866,864
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}    936.56
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8391.3919{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2318

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,102} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.111804{col 26}{space 2} .1704836{col 37}{space 1}   -6.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.445946{col 67}{space 3}-.7776623
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6566902{col 26}{space 2} .1397157{col 37}{space 1}    4.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3828525{col 67}{space 3}  .930528
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1219325{col 26}{space 2} .2309286{col 37}{space 1}   -0.53{col 46}{space 3}0.597{col 54}{space 4}-.5745442{col 67}{space 3} .3306793
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.144776{col 26}{space 2} .1739312{col 37}{space 1}    6.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8038775{col 67}{space 3} 1.485675
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.186764{col 26}{space 2} .0831371{col 37}{space 1}  -14.27{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.34971{col 67}{space 3}-1.023818
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1484406{col 26}{space 2} .1868447{col 37}{space 1}    0.79{col 46}{space 3}0.427{col 54}{space 4}-.2177683{col 67}{space 3} .5146494
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.095318{col 26}{space 2} .1240405{col 37}{space 1}   -0.77{col 46}{space 3}0.442{col 54}{space 4}-.3384329{col 67}{space 3} .1477969
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.220166{col 26}{space 2} .4806947{col 37}{space 1}   -4.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -3.16231{col 67}{space 3}-1.278022
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1585889{col 26}{space 2} .0104956{col 37}{space 1}  -15.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1791598{col 67}{space 3}-.1380179
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0023105{col 26}{space 2} .0002027{col 37}{space 1}   11.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0019133{col 67}{space 3} .0027078
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-9.35e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.05e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -8.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0000114{col 67}{space 3}-7.29e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 5.795983{col 26}{space 2} .9140754{col 37}{space 1}    6.34{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 4.004429{col 67}{space 3} 7.587538
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod3
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Model 4
. logit dispute fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         , cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-16773.772}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-14590.963}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -13929.74}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13910.373}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13910.236}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-13910.236}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res} 1,077,992
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}   1417.48
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-13910.236{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1707

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,916} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.326612{col 26}{space 2} .1489841{col 37}{space 1}   -8.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.618615{col 67}{space 3}-1.034608
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3461796{col 26}{space 2}  .087166{col 37}{space 1}    3.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1753375{col 67}{space 3} .5170218
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .627924{col 26}{space 2} .1052736{col 37}{space 1}    5.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4215915{col 67}{space 3} .8342565
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8774087{col 26}{space 2} .1458055{col 37}{space 1}    6.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .5916352{col 67}{space 3} 1.163182
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9709689{col 26}{space 2} .0415548{col 37}{space 1}  -23.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.052415{col 67}{space 3}-.8895231
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3240324{col 26}{space 2} .1343143{col 37}{space 1}    2.41{col 46}{space 3}0.016{col 54}{space 4} .0607811{col 67}{space 3} .5872836
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4021314{col 26}{space 2} .1043859{col 37}{space 1}   -3.85{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6067241{col 67}{space 3}-.1975388
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.970924{col 26}{space 2} .2372148{col 37}{space 1}   -4.09{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.435856{col 67}{space 3}-.5059916
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1428059{col 26}{space 2}  .007898{col 37}{space 1}  -18.08{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1582857{col 67}{space 3}-.1273261
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0022257{col 26}{space 2} .0001578{col 37}{space 1}   14.10{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0019163{col 67}{space 3}  .002535
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-9.44e-06{col 26}{space 2} 8.54e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -11.06{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0000111{col 67}{space 3}-7.77e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.321897{col 26}{space 2} .3747959{col 37}{space 1}    8.86{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.587311{col 67}{space 3} 4.056484
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. listcoef, st help

{txt}logit (N={res}1077992{txt}): Unstandardized and Standardized Estimates 

 Observed SD: {res}.04667894
{txt}   Latent SD: {res}2.2342498

{txt}  Odds of: {res}1{txt} vs {res}0

{txt}---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      b         z     P>|z|    bStdX    bStdY   bStdXY      SDofX
---------+-----------------------------------------------------------------
   fbdef |{res}  -1.32661   -8.904   0.000  -0.5476  -0.5938  -0.2451     0.4128
  {txt}nfbdef |{res}   0.34618    3.971   0.000   0.1667   0.1549   0.0746     0.4816
{txt}pchaloff |{res}   0.62792    5.965   0.000   0.1073   0.2810   0.0480     0.1709
{txt}pchalneu |{res}   0.87741    6.018   0.000   0.1919   0.3927   0.0859     0.2187
{txt}ln_distance|{res}  -0.97097  -23.366   0.000  -0.8193  -0.4346  -0.3667     0.8438
 {txt}capprop |{res}   0.32403    2.412   0.016   0.1130   0.1450   0.0506     0.3488
    {txt}jdem |{res}  -0.40213   -3.852   0.000  -0.1267  -0.1800  -0.0567     0.3149
{txt}s_un_glo |{res}  -0.97092   -4.093   0.000  -0.1810  -0.4346  -0.0810     0.1864
{txt}peaceyrs |{res}  -0.14281  -18.081   0.000  -4.4206  -0.0639  -1.9786    30.9556
{txt}peaceyrs2|{res}   0.00223   14.103   0.000   8.7546   0.0010   3.9184  3933.5056
{txt}peaceyrs3|{res}  -0.00001  -11.058   0.000  -5.0939  -0.0000  -2.2799539427.1626
{txt}---------------------------------------------------------------------------
       b = raw coefficient
       z = z-score for test of b=0
   P>|z| = p-value for z-test
   bStdX = x-standardized coefficient
   bStdY = y-standardized coefficient
  bStdXY = fully standardized coefficient
   SDofX = standard deviation of X

{com}. *Model 5
. logit dispute fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year<1946, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5656.9801}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5264.0036}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5164.9604}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5162.4227}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5162.4111}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-5162.4111}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   211,128
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}    858.00
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-5162.4111{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0874

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:5,180} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.216397{col 26}{space 2} .4827202{col 37}{space 1}   -4.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.162512{col 67}{space 3}-1.270283
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2303783{col 26}{space 2} .1125752{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.041{col 54}{space 4}  .009735{col 67}{space 3} .4510215
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.297086{col 26}{space 2} .1273204{col 37}{space 1}   10.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.047543{col 67}{space 3}  1.54663
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3597137{col 26}{space 2} .1755054{col 37}{space 1}    2.05{col 46}{space 3}0.040{col 54}{space 4} .0157295{col 67}{space 3} .7036979
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5514569{col 26}{space 2} .0424146{col 37}{space 1}  -13.00{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.634588{col 67}{space 3}-.4683258
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5951895{col 26}{space 2} .1864574{col 37}{space 1}    3.19{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4} .2297397{col 67}{space 3} .9606393
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9919993{col 26}{space 2} .2383002{col 37}{space 1}   -4.16{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.459059{col 67}{space 3}-.5249394
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0608906{col 26}{space 2} .2087243{col 37}{space 1}   -0.29{col 46}{space 3}0.770{col 54}{space 4}-.4699827{col 67}{space 3} .3482015
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1129134{col 26}{space 2} .0106838{col 37}{space 1}  -10.57{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1338533{col 67}{space 3}-.0919734
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0017957{col 26}{space 2} .0002262{col 37}{space 1}    7.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0013525{col 67}{space 3}  .002239
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-7.55e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.33e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -5.68{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0000102{col 67}{space 3}-4.95e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4755449{col 26}{space 2} .3347359{col 37}{space 1}   -1.42{col 46}{space 3}0.155{col 54}{space 4}-1.131615{col 67}{space 3} .1805253
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. listcoef, st help

{txt}logit (N={res}211128{txt}): Unstandardized and Standardized Estimates 

 Observed SD: {res}.0641339
{txt}   Latent SD: {res}2.0464539

{txt}  Odds of: {res}1{txt} vs {res}0

{txt}---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      b         z     P>|z|    bStdX    bStdY   bStdXY      SDofX
---------+-----------------------------------------------------------------
   fbdef |{res}  -2.21640   -4.591   0.000  -0.3664  -1.0830  -0.1790     0.1653
  {txt}nfbdef |{res}   0.23038    2.046   0.041   0.0740   0.1126   0.0362     0.3212
{txt}pchaloff |{res}   1.29709   10.188   0.000   0.2435   0.6338   0.1190     0.1877
{txt}pchalneu |{res}   0.35971    2.050   0.040   0.0820   0.1758   0.0401     0.2279
{txt}ln_distance|{res}  -0.55146  -13.002   0.000  -0.5723  -0.2695  -0.2796     1.0377
 {txt}capprop |{res}   0.59519    3.192   0.001   0.2121   0.2908   0.1037     0.3564
    {txt}jdem |{res}  -0.99200   -4.163   0.000  -0.2194  -0.4847  -0.1072     0.2212
{txt}s_un_glo |{res}  -0.06089   -0.292   0.770  -0.0097  -0.0298  -0.0048     0.1599
{txt}peaceyrs |{res}  -0.11291  -10.569   0.000  -3.0741  -0.0552  -1.5021    27.2251
{txt}peaceyrs2|{res}   0.00180    7.940   0.000   4.7870   0.0009   2.3392  2665.7824
{txt}peaceyrs3|{res}  -0.00001   -5.680   0.000  -2.0153  -0.0000  -0.9848266773.7809
{txt}---------------------------------------------------------------------------
       b = raw coefficient
       z = z-score for test of b=0
   P>|z| = p-value for z-test
   bStdX = x-standardized coefficient
   bStdY = y-standardized coefficient
  bStdXY = fully standardized coefficient
   SDofX = standard deviation of X

{com}. *Model 6
. logit dispute fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3 /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year>1945, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -10923.28}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-9601.3607}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8433.3144}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8392.3251}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8391.3922}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-8391.3919}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   866,864
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}    936.56
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8391.3919{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.2318

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,102} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}     dispute{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.111804{col 26}{space 2} .1704836{col 37}{space 1}   -6.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.445946{col 67}{space 3}-.7776623
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6566902{col 26}{space 2} .1397157{col 37}{space 1}    4.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .3828525{col 67}{space 3}  .930528
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1219325{col 26}{space 2} .2309286{col 37}{space 1}   -0.53{col 46}{space 3}0.597{col 54}{space 4}-.5745442{col 67}{space 3} .3306793
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.144776{col 26}{space 2} .1739312{col 37}{space 1}    6.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .8038775{col 67}{space 3} 1.485675
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.186764{col 26}{space 2} .0831371{col 37}{space 1}  -14.27{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.34971{col 67}{space 3}-1.023818
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1484406{col 26}{space 2} .1868447{col 37}{space 1}    0.79{col 46}{space 3}0.427{col 54}{space 4}-.2177683{col 67}{space 3} .5146494
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.095318{col 26}{space 2} .1240405{col 37}{space 1}   -0.77{col 46}{space 3}0.442{col 54}{space 4}-.3384329{col 67}{space 3} .1477969
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.220166{col 26}{space 2} .4806947{col 37}{space 1}   -4.62{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -3.16231{col 67}{space 3}-1.278022
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1585889{col 26}{space 2} .0104956{col 37}{space 1}  -15.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1791598{col 67}{space 3}-.1380179
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0023105{col 26}{space 2} .0002027{col 37}{space 1}   11.40{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0019133{col 67}{space 3} .0027078
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-9.35e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.05e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -8.88{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0000114{col 67}{space 3}-7.29e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 5.795983{col 26}{space 2} .9140754{col 37}{space 1}    6.34{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 4.004429{col 67}{space 3} 7.587538
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. listcoef, st help

{txt}logit (N={res}866864{txt}): Unstandardized and Standardized Estimates 

 Observed SD: {res}.0413121
{txt}   Latent SD: {res}2.293499

{txt}  Odds of: {res}1{txt} vs {res}0

{txt}---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 dispute |      b         z     P>|z|    bStdX    bStdY   bStdXY      SDofX
---------+-----------------------------------------------------------------
   fbdef |{res}  -1.11180   -6.521   0.000  -0.4901  -0.4848  -0.2137     0.4409
  {txt}nfbdef |{res}   0.65669    4.700   0.000   0.3247   0.2863   0.1416     0.4945
{txt}pchaloff |{res}  -0.12193   -0.528   0.597  -0.0203  -0.0532  -0.0088     0.1664
{txt}pchalneu |{res}   1.14478    6.582   0.000   0.2478   0.4991   0.1080     0.2164
{txt}ln_distance|{res}  -1.18676  -14.275   0.000  -0.9268  -0.5174  -0.4041     0.7810
 {txt}capprop |{res}   0.14844    0.794   0.427   0.0515   0.0647   0.0225     0.3469
    {txt}jdem |{res}  -0.09532   -0.768   0.442  -0.0317  -0.0416  -0.0138     0.3322
{txt}s_un_glo |{res}  -2.22017   -4.619   0.000  -0.4231  -0.9680  -0.1845     0.1906
{txt}peaceyrs |{res}  -0.15859  -15.110   0.000  -5.0426  -0.0691  -2.1987    31.7970
{txt}peaceyrs2|{res}   0.00231   11.400   0.000   9.6633   0.0010   4.2133  4182.3096
{txt}peaceyrs3|{res}  -0.00001   -8.881   0.000  -5.4808  -0.0000  -2.3897586231.5430
{txt}---------------------------------------------------------------------------
       b = raw coefficient
       z = z-score for test of b=0
   P>|z| = p-value for z-test
   bStdX = x-standardized coefficient
   bStdY = y-standardized coefficient
  bStdXY = fully standardized coefficient
   SDofX = standard deviation of X

{com}. 
. 
. *** War is the DV
. tsset ddyad year, yearly
{res}{txt}{col 8}panel variable:  {res}ddyad (unbalanced)
{txt}{col 9}time variable:  {res}{col 25}year, 1816 to 2000, but with gaps
{txt}{col 17}delta:  {res}1 year
{txt}
{com}. sort year
{txt}
{com}. * war, create variable for time since last event
. sort ddyad year
{txt}
{com}. by ddyad: generate time1 = cond(_n>1, war[_n-1], 0)
{txt}
{com}. by ddyad: generate time2 = sum(time1)
{txt}
{com}. generate yearspeacew = .
{txt}(1,077,992 missing values generated)

{com}. sort ddyad time2
{txt}
{com}. by ddyad time2: replace yearspeacew= (year - year[1])+1
{txt}(1,077,992 real changes made)

{com}. drop time1 time2
{txt}
{com}. /* create cubic polynomial of time/100 */
. generate yearout1w = yearspeacew
{txt}
{com}. generate yearout2w =  yearspeacew^2
{txt}
{com}. generate yearout3w =  yearspeacew^3
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *** Appendix 2
. 
. corr war fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo
{txt}(obs=1,077,992)

             {c |}      war    fbdef   nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_dis~e  capprop     jdem s_un_glo
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 81}
         war {c |}{res}   1.0000
       {txt}fbdef {c |}{res}  -0.0042   1.0000
      {txt}nfbdef {c |}{res}  -0.0039  -0.1977   1.0000
    {txt}pchaloff {c |}{res}   0.0054  -0.0535   0.0377   1.0000
    {txt}pchalneu {c |}{res}   0.0001  -0.0333   0.0128   0.0519   1.0000
 {txt}ln_distance {c |}{res}  -0.0169   0.0762  -0.0369  -0.0655   0.0223   1.0000
     {txt}capprop {c |}{res}   0.0026  -0.1782  -0.0002   0.0830   0.0659   0.0000   1.0000
        {txt}jdem {c |}{res}  -0.0027  -0.0368   0.0509  -0.0510   0.0065  -0.0200   0.0000   1.0000
    {txt}s_un_glo {c |}{res}   0.0022  -0.1431  -0.2736  -0.0780  -0.0195  -0.2540   0.0000  -0.0050   1.0000

{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *** Table 2 *** 
. 
. *Model 7
. logit war fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         , cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-963.29102}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-885.17128}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-830.50749}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-827.67225}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-827.59317}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-827.59298}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-827.59298}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res} 1,077,992
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}    241.31
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-827.59298{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1409

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,916} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.062863{col 26}{space 2} .6133846{col 37}{space 1}   -3.36{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-3.265074{col 67}{space 3} -.860651
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.308343{col 26}{space 2} .2955895{col 37}{space 1}   -4.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.887687{col 67}{space 3}-.7289977
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9544591{col 26}{space 2} .3718519{col 37}{space 1}    2.57{col 46}{space 3}0.010{col 54}{space 4} .2256428{col 67}{space 3} 1.683275
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0340785{col 26}{space 2} .4853698{col 37}{space 1}   -0.07{col 46}{space 3}0.944{col 54}{space 4}-.9853857{col 67}{space 3} .9172288
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.091054{col 26}{space 2} .0859296{col 37}{space 1}  -12.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.259473{col 67}{space 3}-.9226354
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7113923{col 26}{space 2}  .398423{col 37}{space 1}    1.79{col 46}{space 3}0.074{col 54}{space 4}-.0695023{col 67}{space 3} 1.492287
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.125309{col 26}{space 2} .7541591{col 37}{space 1}   -2.82{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-3.603433{col 67}{space 3}-.6471838
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7963688{col 26}{space 2}   .60111{col 37}{space 1}   -1.32{col 46}{space 3}0.185{col 54}{space 4}-1.974523{col 67}{space 3} .3817851
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0448555{col 26}{space 2} .0212157{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.034{col 54}{space 4}-.0864375{col 67}{space 3}-.0032734
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007171{col 26}{space 2} .0003549{col 37}{space 1}    2.02{col 46}{space 3}0.043{col 54}{space 4} .0000216{col 67}{space 3} .0014126
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.65e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.53e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.73{col 46}{space 3}0.084{col 54}{space 4}-5.65e-06{col 67}{space 3} 3.52e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1922697{col 26}{space 2} .8762869{col 37}{space 1}    0.22{col 46}{space 3}0.826{col 54}{space 4}-1.525221{col 67}{space 3}  1.90976
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         est store mod4
{txt}
{com}. *Model 8
. logit war /*fbdef*/ nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop /*jdem*/ s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w  /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year<1946, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-590.56911}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-562.13975}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-545.46571}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -544.9899}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-544.98676}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-544.98676}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   211,128
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    132.11
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-544.98676{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0772

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:5,180} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4764147{col 26}{space 2} .4207376{col 37}{space 1}   -1.13{col 46}{space 3}0.257{col 54}{space 4}-1.301045{col 67}{space 3} .3482158
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.12383{col 26}{space 2} .4296279{col 37}{space 1}    2.62{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4} .2817747{col 67}{space 3} 1.965885
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2995878{col 26}{space 2} .4877759{col 37}{space 1}    0.61{col 46}{space 3}0.539{col 54}{space 4}-.6564353{col 67}{space 3} 1.255611
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7688166{col 26}{space 2} .1197576{col 37}{space 1}   -6.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.003537{col 67}{space 3}-.5340961
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.173125{col 26}{space 2} .4504407{col 37}{space 1}    2.60{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4} .2902775{col 67}{space 3} 2.055973
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3097402{col 26}{space 2} .8139726{col 37}{space 1}    0.38{col 46}{space 3}0.704{col 54}{space 4}-1.285617{col 67}{space 3} 1.905097
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0331339{col 26}{space 2} .0358521{col 37}{space 1}    0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.355{col 54}{space 4}-.0371349{col 67}{space 3} .1034027
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0010062{col 26}{space 2} .0007178{col 37}{space 1}   -1.40{col 46}{space 3}0.161{col 54}{space 4} -.002413{col 67}{space 3} .0004006
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 6.93e-06{col 26}{space 2} 3.85e-06{col 37}{space 1}    1.80{col 46}{space 3}0.072{col 54}{space 4}-6.20e-07{col 67}{space 3} .0000145
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.547875{col 26}{space 2} 1.134806{col 37}{space 1}   -3.13{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-5.772054{col 67}{space 3}-1.323696
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         est store mod5
{txt}
{com}. *Model 9
. logit war fbdef nfbdef /*pchaloff*/ ///
>         /*pchalneu*/ ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w  /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year>1945, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-317.53167}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-266.96341}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-256.33758}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-254.97116}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-254.95662}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -254.9566}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   866,864
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    136.95
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res} -254.9566{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1971

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,102} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.416569{col 26}{space 2} .7305401{col 37}{space 1}   -1.94{col 46}{space 3}0.052{col 54}{space 4}-2.848401{col 67}{space 3} .0152634
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5731687{col 26}{space 2} .4996865{col 37}{space 1}   -1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.251{col 54}{space 4}-1.552536{col 67}{space 3} .4061988
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.241251{col 26}{space 2} .1264682{col 37}{space 1}   -9.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.489124{col 67}{space 3}-.9933778
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3646183{col 26}{space 2}  .738223{col 37}{space 1}   -0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.621{col 54}{space 4}-1.811509{col 67}{space 3} 1.082272
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.596051{col 26}{space 2} .8189288{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.467{col 54}{space 4}-2.201122{col 67}{space 3}  1.00902
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.265224{col 26}{space 2} 1.667006{col 37}{space 1}   -0.76{col 46}{space 3}0.448{col 54}{space 4}-4.532496{col 67}{space 3} 2.002048
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0834069{col 26}{space 2} .0338279{col 37}{space 1}   -2.47{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4}-.1497084{col 67}{space 3}-.0171055
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000928{col 26}{space 2} .0005631{col 37}{space 1}    1.65{col 46}{space 3}0.099{col 54}{space 4}-.0001756{col 67}{space 3} .0020317
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.88e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.28e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.26{col 46}{space 3}0.207{col 54}{space 4}-7.35e-06{col 67}{space 3} 1.59e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.877894{col 26}{space 2} 2.191609{col 37}{space 1}    0.86{col 46}{space 3}0.392{col 54}{space 4} -2.41758{col 67}{space 3} 6.173369
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod6
{txt}
{com}. esttab mod*, b(3) se(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) stats(N ll r2) keep(fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo _cons) 
{res}
{txt}{hline 108}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)   
{txt}                  dispute         dispute         dispute             war             war             war   
{txt}{hline 108}
{res}main                                                                                                        {txt}
{txt}fbdef       {res}       -1.327***       -2.216***       -1.112***       -2.063***                       -1.417*  {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.149{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.483{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.170{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.613{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.731{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nfbdef      {res}        0.346***        0.230**         0.657***       -1.308***       -0.476          -0.573   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.087{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.113{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.140{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.296{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.421{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.500{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchaloff    {res}        0.628***        1.297***       -0.122           0.954**         1.124***                {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.105{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.127{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.231{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.372{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.430{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}pchalneu    {res}        0.877***        0.360**         1.145***       -0.034           0.300                   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.146{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.176{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.174{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.485{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.488{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}ln_distance {res}       -0.971***       -0.551***       -1.187***       -1.091***       -0.769***       -1.241***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.042{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.042{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.083{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.086{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.120{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.126{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}capprop     {res}        0.324**         0.595***        0.148           0.711*          1.173***       -0.365   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.134{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.186{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.187{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.398{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.450{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.738{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}jdem        {res}       -0.402***       -0.992***       -0.095          -2.125***                       -0.596   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.104{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.238{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.124{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.754{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.819{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}s_un_glo    {res}       -0.971***       -0.061          -2.220***       -0.796           0.310          -1.265   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.237{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.209{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.481{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.601{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.814{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.667{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}        3.322***       -0.476           5.796***        0.192          -3.548***        1.878   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.375{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.335{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.914{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.876{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.135{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}2.192{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 108}
{txt}N           {res}  1077992.000      211128.000      866864.000     1077992.000      211128.000      866864.000   {txt}
{txt}ll          {res}   -13910.236       -5162.411       -8391.392        -827.593        -544.987        -254.957   {txt}
{txt}r2          {res}                                                                                                {txt}
{txt}{hline 108}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. estimates clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *** Figure 1 ***
. 
. logit war fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         , cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-963.29102}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-885.17128}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-830.50749}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-827.67225}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-827.59317}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-827.59298}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-827.59298}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res} 1,077,992
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}    241.31
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-827.59298{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1409

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,916} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.062863{col 26}{space 2} .6133846{col 37}{space 1}   -3.36{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-3.265074{col 67}{space 3} -.860651
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.308343{col 26}{space 2} .2955895{col 37}{space 1}   -4.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.887687{col 67}{space 3}-.7289977
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9544591{col 26}{space 2} .3718519{col 37}{space 1}    2.57{col 46}{space 3}0.010{col 54}{space 4} .2256428{col 67}{space 3} 1.683275
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0340785{col 26}{space 2} .4853698{col 37}{space 1}   -0.07{col 46}{space 3}0.944{col 54}{space 4}-.9853857{col 67}{space 3} .9172288
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.091054{col 26}{space 2} .0859296{col 37}{space 1}  -12.70{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.259473{col 67}{space 3}-.9226354
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7113923{col 26}{space 2}  .398423{col 37}{space 1}    1.79{col 46}{space 3}0.074{col 54}{space 4}-.0695023{col 67}{space 3} 1.492287
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.125309{col 26}{space 2} .7541591{col 37}{space 1}   -2.82{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4}-3.603433{col 67}{space 3}-.6471838
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7963688{col 26}{space 2}   .60111{col 37}{space 1}   -1.32{col 46}{space 3}0.185{col 54}{space 4}-1.974523{col 67}{space 3} .3817851
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0448555{col 26}{space 2} .0212157{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.034{col 54}{space 4}-.0864375{col 67}{space 3}-.0032734
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007171{col 26}{space 2} .0003549{col 37}{space 1}    2.02{col 46}{space 3}0.043{col 54}{space 4} .0000216{col 67}{space 3} .0014126
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.65e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.53e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.73{col 46}{space 3}0.084{col 54}{space 4}-5.65e-06{col 67}{space 3} 3.52e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1922697{col 26}{space 2} .8762869{col 37}{space 1}    0.22{col 46}{space 3}0.826{col 54}{space 4}-1.525221{col 67}{space 3}  1.90976
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.     margins, dydx(*) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res} 1,077,992
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Pr(war), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0001772{col 26}{space 2} .0000585{col 37}{space 1}   -3.03{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-.0002918{col 67}{space 3}-.0000626
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0001124{col 26}{space 2} .0000303{col 37}{space 1}   -3.71{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0001718{col 67}{space 3} -.000053
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000082{col 26}{space 2} .0000326{col 37}{space 1}    2.51{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4}  .000018{col 67}{space 3}  .000146
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.93e-06{col 26}{space 2} .0000417{col 37}{space 1}   -0.07{col 46}{space 3}0.944{col 54}{space 4}-.0000846{col 67}{space 3} .0000788
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000937{col 26}{space 2} .0000153{col 37}{space 1}   -6.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0001236{col 67}{space 3}-.0000638
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0000611{col 26}{space 2} .0000349{col 37}{space 1}    1.75{col 46}{space 3}0.080{col 54}{space 4}-7.23e-06{col 67}{space 3} .0001294
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0001826{col 26}{space 2} .0000672{col 37}{space 1}   -2.72{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4}-.0003143{col 67}{space 3}-.0000508
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000684{col 26}{space 2} .0000525{col 37}{space 1}   -1.30{col 46}{space 3}0.193{col 54}{space 4}-.0001713{col 67}{space 3} .0000345
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.85e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.85e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -2.08{col 46}{space 3}0.037{col 54}{space 4}-7.48e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.24e-07
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 6.16e-08{col 26}{space 2} 3.07e-08{col 37}{space 1}    2.01{col 46}{space 3}0.045{col 54}{space 4} 1.50e-09{col 67}{space 3} 1.22e-07
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.28e-10{col 26}{space 2} 1.31e-10{col 37}{space 1}   -1.73{col 46}{space 3}0.083{col 54}{space 4}-4.85e-10{col 67}{space 3} 3.00e-11
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}.         est store mod4
{txt}
{com}. logit war /*fbdef*/ nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop /*jdem*/ s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w  /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year<1946, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-590.56911}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-562.13975}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-545.46571}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -544.9899}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-544.98676}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-544.98676}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   211,128
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    132.11
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-544.98676{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0772

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:5,180} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4764147{col 26}{space 2} .4207376{col 37}{space 1}   -1.13{col 46}{space 3}0.257{col 54}{space 4}-1.301045{col 67}{space 3} .3482158
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  1.12383{col 26}{space 2} .4296279{col 37}{space 1}    2.62{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4} .2817747{col 67}{space 3} 1.965885
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2995878{col 26}{space 2} .4877759{col 37}{space 1}    0.61{col 46}{space 3}0.539{col 54}{space 4}-.6564353{col 67}{space 3} 1.255611
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7688166{col 26}{space 2} .1197576{col 37}{space 1}   -6.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.003537{col 67}{space 3}-.5340961
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.173125{col 26}{space 2} .4504407{col 37}{space 1}    2.60{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4} .2902775{col 67}{space 3} 2.055973
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3097402{col 26}{space 2} .8139726{col 37}{space 1}    0.38{col 46}{space 3}0.704{col 54}{space 4}-1.285617{col 67}{space 3} 1.905097
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0331339{col 26}{space 2} .0358521{col 37}{space 1}    0.92{col 46}{space 3}0.355{col 54}{space 4}-.0371349{col 67}{space 3} .1034027
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0010062{col 26}{space 2} .0007178{col 37}{space 1}   -1.40{col 46}{space 3}0.161{col 54}{space 4} -.002413{col 67}{space 3} .0004006
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 6.93e-06{col 26}{space 2} 3.85e-06{col 37}{space 1}    1.80{col 46}{space 3}0.072{col 54}{space 4}-6.20e-07{col 67}{space 3} .0000145
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.547875{col 26}{space 2} 1.134806{col 37}{space 1}   -3.13{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-5.772054{col 67}{space 3}-1.323696
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.     margins, dydx(*) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   211,128
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Pr(war), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop s_un_glo yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0001464{col 26}{space 2} .0001327{col 37}{space 1}   -1.10{col 46}{space 3}0.270{col 54}{space 4}-.0004065{col 67}{space 3} .0001136
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0003455{col 26}{space 2} .0001383{col 37}{space 1}    2.50{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4} .0000745{col 67}{space 3} .0006164
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0000921{col 26}{space 2} .0001504{col 37}{space 1}    0.61{col 46}{space 3}0.540{col 54}{space 4}-.0002027{col 67}{space 3} .0003869
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0002363{col 26}{space 2} .0000533{col 37}{space 1}   -4.44{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0003408{col 67}{space 3}-.0001319
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0003606{col 26}{space 2} .0001473{col 37}{space 1}    2.45{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4}  .000072{col 67}{space 3} .0006492
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0000952{col 26}{space 2}   .00025{col 37}{space 1}    0.38{col 46}{space 3}0.703{col 54}{space 4}-.0003948{col 67}{space 3} .0005852
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0000102{col 26}{space 2} .0000112{col 37}{space 1}    0.91{col 46}{space 3}0.363{col 54}{space 4}-.0000118{col 67}{space 3} .0000321
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.09e-07{col 26}{space 2} 2.28e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -1.36{col 46}{space 3}0.175{col 54}{space 4}-7.56e-07{col 67}{space 3} 1.38e-07
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.13e-09{col 26}{space 2} 1.24e-09{col 37}{space 1}    1.71{col 46}{space 3}0.086{col 54}{space 4}-3.05e-10{col 67}{space 3} 4.56e-09
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}.         est store mod5
{txt}
{com}. logit war fbdef nfbdef /*pchaloff*/ ///
>         /*pchalneu*/ ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w  /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year>1945, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-317.53167}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-266.96341}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-256.33758}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-254.97116}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-254.95662}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -254.9566}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   866,864
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}    136.95
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res} -254.9566{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1971

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,102} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.416569{col 26}{space 2} .7305401{col 37}{space 1}   -1.94{col 46}{space 3}0.052{col 54}{space 4}-2.848401{col 67}{space 3} .0152634
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5731687{col 26}{space 2} .4996865{col 37}{space 1}   -1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.251{col 54}{space 4}-1.552536{col 67}{space 3} .4061988
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.241251{col 26}{space 2} .1264682{col 37}{space 1}   -9.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.489124{col 67}{space 3}-.9933778
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3646183{col 26}{space 2}  .738223{col 37}{space 1}   -0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.621{col 54}{space 4}-1.811509{col 67}{space 3} 1.082272
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.596051{col 26}{space 2} .8189288{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.467{col 54}{space 4}-2.201122{col 67}{space 3}  1.00902
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.265224{col 26}{space 2} 1.667006{col 37}{space 1}   -0.76{col 46}{space 3}0.448{col 54}{space 4}-4.532496{col 67}{space 3} 2.002048
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0834069{col 26}{space 2} .0338279{col 37}{space 1}   -2.47{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4}-.1497084{col 67}{space 3}-.0171055
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000928{col 26}{space 2} .0005631{col 37}{space 1}    1.65{col 46}{space 3}0.099{col 54}{space 4}-.0001756{col 67}{space 3} .0020317
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.88e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.28e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.26{col 46}{space 3}0.207{col 54}{space 4}-7.35e-06{col 67}{space 3} 1.59e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.877894{col 26}{space 2} 2.191609{col 37}{space 1}    0.86{col 46}{space 3}0.392{col 54}{space 4} -2.41758{col 67}{space 3} 6.173369
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. margins, dydx(*) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   866,864
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Pr(war), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:fbdef nfbdef ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.000045{col 26}{space 2} .0000275{col 37}{space 1}   -1.63{col 46}{space 3}0.102{col 54}{space 4} -.000099{col 67}{space 3} 8.96e-06
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000182{col 26}{space 2} .0000177{col 37}{space 1}   -1.03{col 46}{space 3}0.302{col 54}{space 4}-.0000528{col 67}{space 3} .0000164
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000394{col 26}{space 2} .0000121{col 37}{space 1}   -3.27{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.0000631{col 67}{space 3}-.0000158
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000116{col 26}{space 2}  .000024{col 37}{space 1}   -0.48{col 46}{space 3}0.630{col 54}{space 4}-.0000587{col 67}{space 3} .0000355
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000189{col 26}{space 2} .0000261{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.468{col 54}{space 4}  -.00007{col 67}{space 3} .0000322
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000402{col 26}{space 2} .0000548{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.463{col 54}{space 4}-.0001475{col 67}{space 3} .0000672
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.65e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.24e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -2.13{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4}-5.09e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.12e-07
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.95e-08{col 26}{space 2} 1.88e-08{col 37}{space 1}    1.57{col 46}{space 3}0.117{col 54}{space 4}-7.39e-09{col 67}{space 3} 6.63e-08
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-9.15e-11{col 26}{space 2} 7.39e-11{col 37}{space 1}   -1.24{col 46}{space 3}0.216{col 54}{space 4}-2.36e-10{col 67}{space 3} 5.33e-11
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est store mod6
{txt}
{com}. coefplot (mod4, label(Model 7) pstyle(p1) msymbol(D)) (mod5, label(Model 8) pstyle(p4) msymbol(Sh)) (mod6, label(Model 9) pstyle(p5) msymbol(T)), /*drop(_cons)*/ keep(fbdef nfbdef) xline(0) /*xtitle(Average Substantive Effects)*/ ///
>          order(fbdef nfbdef) ///
>          coeflabel(fbdef = "Target has a defense alliance from birth" nfbdef  = "Target has a defense alliance formed after birth") ///
>          levels(80 80 80)
{res}{txt}
{com}. estimates clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *** Table 3 ***
. 
. relogit war fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         , 


{txt}Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}  1077992

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.904479{col 26}{space 2} .6029532{col 37}{space 1}   -3.16{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-3.086246{col 67}{space 3}-.7227127
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.286035{col 26}{space 2} .2946284{col 37}{space 1}   -4.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.863496{col 67}{space 3}-.7085737
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9797975{col 26}{space 2} .3439725{col 37}{space 1}    2.85{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .3056237{col 67}{space 3} 1.653971
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0612885{col 26}{space 2} .4909566{col 37}{space 1}    0.12{col 46}{space 3}0.901{col 54}{space 4}-.9009687{col 67}{space 3} 1.023546
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.093697{col 26}{space 2} .0511338{col 37}{space 1}  -21.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.193917{col 67}{space 3}-.9934764
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .7036682{col 26}{space 2} .3261514{col 37}{space 1}    2.16{col 46}{space 3}0.031{col 54}{space 4} .0644232{col 67}{space 3} 1.342913
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.872393{col 26}{space 2} .7601242{col 37}{space 1}   -2.46{col 46}{space 3}0.014{col 54}{space 4}-3.362209{col 67}{space 3}-.3825773
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8443699{col 26}{space 2} .5389639{col 37}{space 1}   -1.57{col 46}{space 3}0.117{col 54}{space 4} -1.90072{col 67}{space 3} .2119799
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0425976{col 26}{space 2} .0206056{col 37}{space 1}   -2.07{col 46}{space 3}0.039{col 54}{space 4}-.0829839{col 67}{space 3}-.0022112
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000657{col 26}{space 2} .0003407{col 37}{space 1}    1.93{col 46}{space 3}0.054{col 54}{space 4}-.0000107{col 67}{space 3} .0013247
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.26e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.46e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.55{col 46}{space 3}0.122{col 54}{space 4}-5.12e-06{col 67}{space 3} 6.02e-07
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .272683{col 26}{space 2} .6585504{col 37}{space 1}    0.41{col 46}{space 3}0.679{col 54}{space 4}-1.018052{col 67}{space 3} 1.563418
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         est store mod1
{txt}
{com}. relogit war /*fbdef*/ nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop /*jdem*/ s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w  /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year<1946, 


{txt}Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}   211128

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4222714{col 26}{space 2} .4123317{col 37}{space 1}   -1.02{col 46}{space 3}0.306{col 54}{space 4}-1.230427{col 67}{space 3} .3858839
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.150316{col 26}{space 2} .4009966{col 37}{space 1}    2.87{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .3643773{col 67}{space 3} 1.936255
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .387622{col 26}{space 2} .4910526{col 37}{space 1}    0.79{col 46}{space 3}0.430{col 54}{space 4}-.5748234{col 67}{space 3} 1.350068
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7688316{col 26}{space 2}  .099567{col 37}{space 1}   -7.72{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.9639793{col 67}{space 3}-.5736839
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.153368{col 26}{space 2}  .405992{col 37}{space 1}    2.84{col 46}{space 3}0.004{col 54}{space 4} .3576381{col 67}{space 3} 1.949097
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2332919{col 26}{space 2} .6996742{col 37}{space 1}    0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.739{col 54}{space 4}-1.138044{col 67}{space 3} 1.604628
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0319339{col 26}{space 2} .0353617{col 37}{space 1}    0.90{col 46}{space 3}0.366{col 54}{space 4}-.0373738{col 67}{space 3} .1012415
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0009864{col 26}{space 2} .0006931{col 37}{space 1}   -1.42{col 46}{space 3}0.155{col 54}{space 4}-.0023448{col 67}{space 3}  .000372
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 6.88e-06{col 26}{space 2} 3.69e-06{col 37}{space 1}    1.86{col 46}{space 3}0.062{col 54}{space 4}-3.55e-07{col 67}{space 3} .0000141
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-3.410655{col 26}{space 2} .9679338{col 37}{space 1}   -3.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.307771{col 67}{space 3} -1.51354
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         est store mod2
{txt}
{com}. relogit war fbdef nfbdef /*pchaloff*/ ///
>         /*pchalneu*/ ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w  /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year>1945, 


{txt}Corrected logit estimates                             Number of obs ={res}   866864

{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.268331{col 26}{space 2} .6809323{col 37}{space 1}   -1.86{col 46}{space 3}0.063{col 54}{space 4}-2.602934{col 67}{space 3} .0662716
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5252015{col 26}{space 2} .4766268{col 37}{space 1}   -1.10{col 46}{space 3}0.270{col 54}{space 4}-1.459373{col 67}{space 3} .4089698
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.242147{col 26}{space 2} .0545689{col 37}{space 1}  -22.76{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  -1.3491{col 67}{space 3}-1.135194
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3493303{col 26}{space 2} .5169414{col 37}{space 1}   -0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.499{col 54}{space 4}-1.362517{col 67}{space 3} .6638563
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3495991{col 26}{space 2}  .853927{col 37}{space 1}   -0.41{col 46}{space 3}0.682{col 54}{space 4}-2.023265{col 67}{space 3} 1.324067
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.400758{col 26}{space 2} 1.566787{col 37}{space 1}   -0.89{col 46}{space 3}0.371{col 54}{space 4}-4.471603{col 67}{space 3} 1.670088
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.076295{col 26}{space 2} .0340422{col 37}{space 1}   -2.24{col 46}{space 3}0.025{col 54}{space 4}-.1430164{col 67}{space 3}-.0095736
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007546{col 26}{space 2} .0005669{col 37}{space 1}    1.33{col 46}{space 3}0.183{col 54}{space 4}-.0003565{col 67}{space 3} .0018658
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.73e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.30e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -0.75{col 46}{space 3}0.452{col 54}{space 4}-6.23e-06{col 67}{space 3} 2.78e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.043487{col 26}{space 2} 1.631841{col 37}{space 1}    1.25{col 46}{space 3}0.210{col 54}{space 4}-1.154862{col 67}{space 3} 5.241837
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod3
{txt}
{com}. 
. gen majpower = 1 if (challenger == 2 | challenger == 200 | challenger == 220 | challenger == 365 | challenger == 710) /* US, UK, France, Russia, China */ 
{txt}(1,021,832 missing values generated)

{com}. replace majpower = 0 if majpower == .
{txt}(1,021,832 real changes made)

{com}. 
. logit war fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if majpower == 1 | contig == 1, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-584.42095}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-562.97724}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-542.49281}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-542.25329}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-542.25121}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-542.25121}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    88,790
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}     92.19
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-542.25121{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0722

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:1,566} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.186275{col 26}{space 2} .6117637{col 37}{space 1}   -1.94{col 46}{space 3}0.052{col 54}{space 4} -2.38531{col 67}{space 3} .0127599
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.148319{col 26}{space 2} .3451917{col 37}{space 1}   -3.33{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-1.824882{col 67}{space 3}-.4717551
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .9186329{col 26}{space 2} .4049467{col 37}{space 1}    2.27{col 46}{space 3}0.023{col 54}{space 4}  .124952{col 67}{space 3} 1.712314
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.016345{col 26}{space 2} .6359691{col 37}{space 1}   -1.60{col 46}{space 3}0.110{col 54}{space 4}-2.262822{col 67}{space 3} .2301311
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4006085{col 26}{space 2} .1104126{col 37}{space 1}   -3.63{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6170131{col 67}{space 3}-.1842038
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5511719{col 26}{space 2} .4019894{col 37}{space 1}   -1.37{col 46}{space 3}0.170{col 54}{space 4}-1.339057{col 67}{space 3} .2367128
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -1.66868{col 26}{space 2} .7400006{col 37}{space 1}   -2.25{col 46}{space 3}0.024{col 54}{space 4}-3.119055{col 67}{space 3}-.2183058
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1607478{col 26}{space 2} .6586594{col 37}{space 1}   -0.24{col 46}{space 3}0.807{col 54}{space 4}-1.451696{col 67}{space 3} 1.130201
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0490976{col 26}{space 2} .0229203{col 37}{space 1}   -2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.032{col 54}{space 4}-.0940206{col 67}{space 3}-.0041746
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0005627{col 26}{space 2} .0003863{col 37}{space 1}    1.46{col 46}{space 3}0.145{col 54}{space 4}-.0001943{col 67}{space 3} .0013198
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.84e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.61e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -1.14{col 46}{space 3}0.253{col 54}{space 4}-4.99e-06{col 67}{space 3} 1.31e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.553717{col 26}{space 2} 1.056817{col 37}{space 1}   -2.42{col 46}{space 3}0.016{col 54}{space 4} -4.62504{col 67}{space 3}-.4823945
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         est store mod4
{txt}
{com}. logit war /*fbdef*/ nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop /*jdem*/ s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w  /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year<1946 & (majpower == 1 | contig == 1), cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-350.93485}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-348.93872}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-339.21658}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-338.76261}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-338.75832}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-338.75832}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    34,833
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}     24.61
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0034
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-338.75832{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0347

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:624} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6678567{col 26}{space 2} .5146588{col 37}{space 1}   -1.30{col 46}{space 3}0.194{col 54}{space 4}-1.676569{col 67}{space 3}  .340856
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.002538{col 26}{space 2} .4484316{col 37}{space 1}    2.24{col 46}{space 3}0.025{col 54}{space 4} .1236286{col 67}{space 3} 1.881448
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2692908{col 26}{space 2} .6339828{col 37}{space 1}   -0.42{col 46}{space 3}0.671{col 54}{space 4}-1.511874{col 67}{space 3} .9732926
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2307137{col 26}{space 2} .1501439{col 37}{space 1}   -1.54{col 46}{space 3}0.124{col 54}{space 4}-.5249903{col 67}{space 3}  .063563
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2863873{col 26}{space 2} .4601528{col 37}{space 1}   -0.62{col 46}{space 3}0.534{col 54}{space 4} -1.18827{col 67}{space 3} .6154955
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4738783{col 26}{space 2} 1.076204{col 37}{space 1}    0.44{col 46}{space 3}0.660{col 54}{space 4}-1.635442{col 67}{space 3} 2.583199
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0248278{col 26}{space 2} .0421902{col 37}{space 1}    0.59{col 46}{space 3}0.556{col 54}{space 4}-.0578633{col 67}{space 3}  .107519
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0011892{col 26}{space 2} .0008641{col 37}{space 1}   -1.38{col 46}{space 3}0.169{col 54}{space 4}-.0028829{col 67}{space 3} .0005045
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 8.61e-06{col 26}{space 2} 4.72e-06{col 37}{space 1}    1.82{col 46}{space 3}0.068{col 54}{space 4}-6.39e-07{col 67}{space 3} .0000179
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-5.025056{col 26}{space 2} 1.402192{col 37}{space 1}   -3.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-7.773303{col 67}{space 3}-2.276809
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         est store mod5
{txt}
{com}. logit war fbdef nfbdef /*pchaloff*/ ///
>         /*pchalneu*/ ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w  /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if year>1945 &  (majpower == 1 | contig == 1), cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-224.57774}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-201.11003}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-194.28836}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-193.67109}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-193.44523}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-193.34897}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-193.33059}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-193.33023}  
Iteration 8:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-193.33023}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}    53,957
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}     52.33
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-193.33023{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1391

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:1,432} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7891509{col 26}{space 2} .6653093{col 37}{space 1}   -1.19{col 46}{space 3}0.236{col 54}{space 4}-2.093133{col 67}{space 3} .5148314
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7729513{col 26}{space 2} .4881585{col 37}{space 1}   -1.58{col 46}{space 3}0.113{col 54}{space 4}-1.729724{col 67}{space 3} .1838217
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5695348{col 26}{space 2} .1583024{col 37}{space 1}   -3.60{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8798018{col 67}{space 3}-.2592677
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.432172{col 26}{space 2} .7663549{col 37}{space 1}   -1.87{col 46}{space 3}0.062{col 54}{space 4}  -2.9342{col 67}{space 3} .0698558
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5997105{col 26}{space 2} .7192891{col 37}{space 1}   -0.83{col 46}{space 3}0.404{col 54}{space 4}-2.009491{col 67}{space 3} .8100702
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.129159{col 26}{space 2}  1.27017{col 37}{space 1}   -0.89{col 46}{space 3}0.374{col 54}{space 4}-3.618647{col 67}{space 3} 1.360328
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0819498{col 26}{space 2} .0681718{col 37}{space 1}   -1.20{col 46}{space 3}0.229{col 54}{space 4}-.2155642{col 67}{space 3} .0516645
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0014385{col 26}{space 2} .0021034{col 37}{space 1}    0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.494{col 54}{space 4}-.0026841{col 67}{space 3} .0055612
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000106{col 26}{space 2} .0000155{col 37}{space 1}   -0.69{col 46}{space 3}0.491{col 54}{space 4} -.000041{col 67}{space 3} .0000197
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2725888{col 26}{space 2} 1.977169{col 37}{space 1}   -0.14{col 46}{space 3}0.890{col 54}{space 4}-4.147769{col 67}{space 3} 3.602591
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 5082 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. est store mod6
{txt}
{com}. esttab mod*, b(3) se(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) stats(N ll r2) keep(fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo _cons) 
{res}
{txt}{hline 108}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)             (5)             (6)   
{txt}                      war             war             war             war             war             war   
{txt}{hline 108}
{res}main                                                                                                        {txt}
{txt}fbdef       {res}       -1.904***                       -1.268*         -1.186*                         -0.789   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.603{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.681{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.612{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.665{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nfbdef      {res}       -1.286***       -0.422          -0.525          -1.148***       -0.668          -0.773   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.295{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.412{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.477{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.345{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.515{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.488{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchaloff    {res}        0.980***        1.150***                        0.919**         1.003**                 {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.344{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.401{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.405{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.448{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}pchalneu    {res}        0.061           0.388                          -1.016          -0.269                   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.491{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.491{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.636{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.634{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}ln_distance {res}       -1.094***       -0.769***       -1.242***       -0.401***       -0.231          -0.570***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.051{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.100{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.055{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.110{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.150{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.158{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}capprop     {res}        0.704**         1.153***       -0.349          -0.551          -0.286          -1.432*  {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.326{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.406{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.517{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.402{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.460{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.766{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}jdem        {res}       -1.872**                        -0.350          -1.669**                        -0.600   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.760{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.854{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.740{txt:)}}                    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.719{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}s_un_glo    {res}       -0.844           0.233          -1.401          -0.161           0.474          -1.129   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.539{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.700{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.567{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.659{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.076{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.270{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}        0.273          -3.411***        2.043          -2.554**        -5.025***       -0.273   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.659{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.968{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.632{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.057{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.402{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.977{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 108}
{txt}N           {res}  1077992.000      211128.000      866864.000       88790.000       34833.000       53957.000   {txt}
{txt}ll          {res}                                                     -542.251        -338.758        -193.330   {txt}
{txt}r2          {res}                                                                                                {txt}
{txt}{hline 108}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. estimates clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *** Table 4 ***
. 
. heckprob war                fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem /*s_un_glo*/ yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w, ///
>          select(dispute =   fbdef nfbdef ptargdef pchalally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) cluster(ddyad) nolog
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs     = {res}   1077992
{txt}                                                Censored obs      = {res}   1075638
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs    = {res}     2,354

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}    46.99
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-14232.67                {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,916} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}war          {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4384188{col 26}{space 2} .2566681{col 37}{space 1}   -1.71{col 46}{space 3}0.088{col 54}{space 4}-.9414789{col 67}{space 3} .0646414
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5309492{col 26}{space 2}  .118171{col 37}{space 1}   -4.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7625601{col 67}{space 3}-.2993383
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2888351{col 26}{space 2} .1795803{col 37}{space 1}    1.61{col 46}{space 3}0.108{col 54}{space 4}-.0631359{col 67}{space 3}  .640806
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4481262{col 26}{space 2} .1856718{col 37}{space 1}   -2.41{col 46}{space 3}0.016{col 54}{space 4}-.8120363{col 67}{space 3} -.084216
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0133121{col 26}{space 2} .0767886{col 37}{space 1}    0.17{col 46}{space 3}0.862{col 54}{space 4}-.1371908{col 67}{space 3} .1638151
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1338361{col 26}{space 2}  .152757{col 37}{space 1}   -0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.381{col 54}{space 4}-.4332342{col 67}{space 3} .1655621
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4353689{col 26}{space 2}  .257424{col 37}{space 1}   -1.69{col 46}{space 3}0.091{col 54}{space 4}-.9399106{col 67}{space 3} .0691729
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0003893{col 26}{space 2} .0083059{col 37}{space 1}   -0.05{col 46}{space 3}0.963{col 54}{space 4}-.0166686{col 67}{space 3} .0158901
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000501{col 26}{space 2}  .000131{col 37}{space 1}   -0.38{col 46}{space 3}0.702{col 54}{space 4}-.0003069{col 67}{space 3} .0002066
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.63e-07{col 26}{space 2} 5.40e-07{col 37}{space 1}    0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.626{col 54}{space 4}-7.95e-07{col 67}{space 3} 1.32e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6923209{col 26}{space 2} .2840962{col 37}{space 1}   -2.44{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4}-1.249139{col 67}{space 3}-.1355026
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3508331{col 26}{space 2} .0867986{col 37}{space 1}   -4.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5209551{col 67}{space 3} -.180711
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2351963{col 26}{space 2}  .087214{col 37}{space 1}    2.70{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4}   .06426{col 67}{space 3} .4061326
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1245854{col 26}{space 2} .0918635{col 37}{space 1}   -1.36{col 46}{space 3}0.175{col 54}{space 4}-.3046347{col 67}{space 3} .0554638
{txt}{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0966426{col 26}{space 2} .0254666{col 37}{space 1}   -3.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1465563{col 67}{space 3}-.0467289
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .263558{col 26}{space 2}  .037567{col 37}{space 1}    7.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1899281{col 67}{space 3} .3371879
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3015842{col 26}{space 2} .0547437{col 37}{space 1}    5.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1942886{col 67}{space 3} .4088799
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3731045{col 26}{space 2} .0128861{col 37}{space 1}  -28.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3983608{col 67}{space 3}-.3478482
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1204552{col 26}{space 2} .0430338{col 37}{space 1}    2.80{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .0361104{col 67}{space 3} .2047999
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1470026{col 26}{space 2} .0347339{col 37}{space 1}   -4.23{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2150799{col 67}{space 3}-.0789253
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4749213{col 26}{space 2}  .085145{col 37}{space 1}   -5.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6418025{col 67}{space 3}-.3080401
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0465877{col 26}{space 2} .0026886{col 37}{space 1}  -17.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0518572{col 67}{space 3}-.0413182
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000711{col 26}{space 2} .0000537{col 37}{space 1}   13.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006058{col 67}{space 3} .0008162
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.95e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.89e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -10.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.52e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.39e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8540584{col 26}{space 2}  .123554{col 37}{space 1}    6.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6118971{col 67}{space 3}  1.09622
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2764598{col 26}{space 2} .1802232{col 37}{space 1}   -1.53{col 46}{space 3}0.125{col 54}{space 4}-.6296907{col 67}{space 3} .0767711
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         rho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2696254{col 26}{space 2} .1671213{col 54}{space 4}-.5578392{col 67}{space 3} .0766206
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    2.35   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.1250
{txt}
{com}. est store mod1
{txt}
{com}. heckprob war                fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem /*s_un_glo*/ yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w if year<1946, ///
>          select(dispute =   fbdef nfbdef ptargdef pchalally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) cluster(ddyad) nolog
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs     = {res}   211,128
{txt}                                                Censored obs      = {res}   210,256
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs    = {res}       872

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}   218.31
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-5379.311                {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:5,180} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}war          {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.602935{col 26}{space 2} .7876938{col 37}{space 1}   -5.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-6.146786{col 67}{space 3}-3.059083
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1454022{col 26}{space 2} .1708964{col 37}{space 1}   -0.85{col 46}{space 3}0.395{col 54}{space 4} -.480353{col 67}{space 3} .1895487
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0621672{col 26}{space 2} .2088894{col 37}{space 1}   -0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.766{col 54}{space 4} -.471583{col 67}{space 3} .3472485
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1425724{col 26}{space 2} .2101875{col 37}{space 1}   -0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.498{col 54}{space 4}-.5545323{col 67}{space 3} .2693876
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0703649{col 26}{space 2} .0874918{col 37}{space 1}   -0.80{col 46}{space 3}0.421{col 54}{space 4}-.2418456{col 67}{space 3} .1011159
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0591922{col 26}{space 2} .1768564{col 37}{space 1}    0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.738{col 54}{space 4}  -.28744{col 67}{space 3} .4058245
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.579845{col 26}{space 2} .6949222{col 37}{space 1}   -6.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.941867{col 67}{space 3}-3.217822
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0235699{col 26}{space 2} .0137407{col 37}{space 1}    1.72{col 46}{space 3}0.086{col 54}{space 4}-.0033615{col 67}{space 3} .0505012
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0005805{col 26}{space 2} .0002744{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.034{col 54}{space 4}-.0011184{col 67}{space 3}-.0000425
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.18e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.49e-06{col 37}{space 1}    2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4} 2.65e-07{col 67}{space 3} 6.10e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4983722{col 26}{space 2} .5348641{col 37}{space 1}    0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.351{col 54}{space 4}-.5499422{col 67}{space 3} 1.546687
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3702987{col 26}{space 2} .2212262{col 37}{space 1}   -1.67{col 46}{space 3}0.094{col 54}{space 4}-.8038941{col 67}{space 3} .0632968
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5904502{col 26}{space 2} .2816077{col 37}{space 1}    2.10{col 46}{space 3}0.036{col 54}{space 4} .0385093{col 67}{space 3} 1.142391
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.504982{col 26}{space 2} .2866973{col 37}{space 1}   -1.76{col 46}{space 3}0.078{col 54}{space 4}-1.066898{col 67}{space 3} .0569343
{txt}{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0287052{col 26}{space 2}   .03718{col 37}{space 1}   -0.77{col 46}{space 3}0.440{col 54}{space 4}-.1015767{col 67}{space 3} .0441662
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5110164{col 26}{space 2} .0449076{col 37}{space 1}   11.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4229991{col 67}{space 3} .5990337
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1258683{col 26}{space 2} .0634095{col 37}{space 1}    1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.047{col 54}{space 4}  .001588{col 67}{space 3} .2501486
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2003977{col 26}{space 2}  .016088{col 37}{space 1}  -12.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2319296{col 67}{space 3}-.1688658
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2016359{col 26}{space 2} .0635293{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0771208{col 67}{space 3}  .326151
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3370963{col 26}{space 2} .0833274{col 37}{space 1}   -4.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5004151{col 67}{space 3}-.1737776
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0978082{col 26}{space 2} .0839217{col 37}{space 1}   -1.17{col 46}{space 3}0.244{col 54}{space 4}-.2622917{col 67}{space 3} .0666752
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0392515{col 26}{space 2} .0038404{col 37}{space 1}  -10.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0467786{col 67}{space 3}-.0317243
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006352{col 26}{space 2} .0000802{col 37}{space 1}    7.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .000478{col 67}{space 3} .0007924
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.74e-06{col 26}{space 2} 4.71e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -5.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.66e-06{col 67}{space 3}-1.82e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7553509{col 26}{space 2}   .13762{col 37}{space 1}   -5.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.025081{col 67}{space 3}-.4856205
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5468033{col 26}{space 2} .2753555{col 37}{space 1}   -1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.047{col 54}{space 4} -1.08649{col 67}{space 3}-.0071165
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         rho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4981205{col 26}{space 2} .2070331{col 54}{space 4}-.7955935{col 67}{space 3}-.0071164
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    3.94   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0471
{txt}
{com}. est store mod2
{txt}
{com}. heckprob war                fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem /*s_un_glo*/ yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w if year>1945, ///
>          select(dispute =   fbdef nfbdef ptargdef pchalally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) cluster(ddyad) nolog
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs     = {res}   866,864
{txt}                                                Censored obs      = {res}   865,382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs    = {res}     1,482

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}  1225.50
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8415.466                {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,102} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}war          {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2669315{col 26}{space 2} .2810381{col 37}{space 1}   -0.95{col 46}{space 3}0.342{col 54}{space 4}-.8177561{col 67}{space 3} .2838931
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4293675{col 26}{space 2} .1930575{col 37}{space 1}   -2.22{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4}-.8077534{col 67}{space 3}-.0509817
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.560309{col 26}{space 2} .3736465{col 37}{space 1}  -12.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.292642{col 67}{space 3}-3.827975
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.767445{col 26}{space 2} .2744809{col 37}{space 1}  -17.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.305418{col 67}{space 3}-4.229473
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0040769{col 26}{space 2}   .15038{col 37}{space 1}    0.03{col 46}{space 3}0.978{col 54}{space 4}-.2906624{col 67}{space 3} .2988163
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5940188{col 26}{space 2} .2779921{col 37}{space 1}   -2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4}-1.138873{col 67}{space 3}-.0491643
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0053748{col 26}{space 2} .2825604{col 37}{space 1}    0.02{col 46}{space 3}0.985{col 54}{space 4}-.5484334{col 67}{space 3}  .559183
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0112633{col 26}{space 2} .0128548{col 37}{space 1}   -0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.381{col 54}{space 4}-.0364582{col 67}{space 3} .0139316
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000022{col 26}{space 2}  .000204{col 37}{space 1}    0.11{col 46}{space 3}0.914{col 54}{space 4}-.0003778{col 67}{space 3} .0004218
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.84e-07{col 26}{space 2} 7.96e-07{col 37}{space 1}    0.23{col 46}{space 3}0.817{col 54}{space 4}-1.38e-06{col 67}{space 3} 1.74e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4705451{col 26}{space 2} .4713854{col 37}{space 1}   -1.00{col 46}{space 3}0.318{col 54}{space 4}-1.394443{col 67}{space 3} .4533533
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3690897{col 26}{space 2} .0937973{col 37}{space 1}   -3.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5529289{col 67}{space 3}-.1852504
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2209835{col 26}{space 2}   .09299{col 37}{space 1}    2.38{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4} .0387265{col 67}{space 3} .4032405
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0025688{col 26}{space 2} .1033874{col 37}{space 1}   -0.02{col 46}{space 3}0.980{col 54}{space 4}-.2052045{col 67}{space 3} .2000668
{txt}{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0154041{col 26}{space 2} .0383566{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.688{col 54}{space 4}-.0905817{col 67}{space 3} .0597735
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0742146{col 26}{space 2}  .080004{col 37}{space 1}   -0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.354{col 54}{space 4}-.2310194{col 67}{space 3} .0825903
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4170393{col 26}{space 2} .0654476{col 37}{space 1}    6.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2887643{col 67}{space 3} .5453142
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4927145{col 26}{space 2} .0230824{col 37}{space 1}  -21.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.537955{col 67}{space 3}-.4474739
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0622072{col 26}{space 2} .0546963{col 37}{space 1}    1.14{col 46}{space 3}0.255{col 54}{space 4}-.0449957{col 67}{space 3} .1694101
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0566664{col 26}{space 2} .0407707{col 37}{space 1}   -1.39{col 46}{space 3}0.165{col 54}{space 4}-.1365754{col 67}{space 3} .0232426
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9256588{col 26}{space 2} .1548339{col 37}{space 1}   -5.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.229128{col 67}{space 3}  -.62219
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0520158{col 26}{space 2} .0034247{col 37}{space 1}  -15.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.058728{col 67}{space 3}-.0453035
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007428{col 26}{space 2} .0000652{col 37}{space 1}   11.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .000615{col 67}{space 3} .0008706
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.95e-06{col 26}{space 2} 3.36e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -8.80{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.61e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.30e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.023854{col 26}{space 2}  .283344{col 37}{space 1}    7.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  1.46851{col 67}{space 3} 2.579198
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2938592{col 26}{space 2} .3019641{col 37}{space 1}   -0.97{col 46}{space 3}0.330{col 54}{space 4}-.8856979{col 67}{space 3} .2979795
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         rho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2856829{col 26}{space 2} .2773193{col 54}{space 4}-.7092623{col 67}{space 3} .2894625
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    0.95   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.3305
{txt}
{com}. est store mod3
{txt}
{com}. esttab mod*, b(3) se(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) stats(N ll r2) keep(fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo _cons)
{res}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)             (3)   
{txt}                      war             war             war   
{txt}{hline 60}
{res}war                                                         {txt}
{txt}fbdef       {res}       -0.438*         -4.603***       -0.267   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.257{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.788{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.281{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nfbdef      {res}       -0.531***       -0.145          -0.429** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.118{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.171{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.193{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchaloff    {res}        0.289          -0.062          -4.560***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.180{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.209{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.374{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchalneu    {res}       -0.448**        -0.143          -4.767***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.186{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.210{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.274{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ln_distance {res}        0.013          -0.070           0.004   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.077{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.087{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.150{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}capprop     {res}       -0.134           0.059          -0.594** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.153{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.177{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.278{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}jdem        {res}       -0.435*         -4.580***        0.005   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.257{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.695{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.283{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}       -0.692**         0.498          -0.471   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.284{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.535{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.471{txt:)}}   {txt}
{hline 60}
{res}dispute                                                     {txt}
{txt}fbdef       {res}       -0.351***       -0.370*         -0.369***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.087{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.221{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.094{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nfbdef      {res}        0.235***        0.590**         0.221** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.087{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.282{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.093{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchaloff    {res}        0.264***        0.511***       -0.074   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.038{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.045{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.080{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchalneu    {res}        0.302***        0.126**         0.417***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.055{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.063{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.065{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ln_distance {res}       -0.373***       -0.200***       -0.493***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.013{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.016{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.023{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}capprop     {res}        0.120***        0.202***        0.062   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.043{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.064{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.055{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}jdem        {res}       -0.147***       -0.337***       -0.057   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.035{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.083{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.041{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}s_un_glo    {res}       -0.475***       -0.098          -0.926***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.085{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.084{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.155{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}        0.854***       -0.755***        2.024***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.124{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.138{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.283{txt:)}}   {txt}
{hline 60}
{res}athrho                                                      {txt}
{txt}_cons       {res}       -0.276          -0.547**        -0.294   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.180{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.275{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.302{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}N           {res}  1077992.000      211128.000      866864.000   {txt}
{txt}ll          {res}   -14232.673       -5379.311       -8415.466   {txt}
{txt}r2          {res}                                                {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. estimates clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *** Figure 2 ***
. 
. *** MIDs escalated to Wars: Substantive Effects
. 
. heckprob war                fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem /*s_un_glo*/ yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w, ///
>          select(dispute =   fbdef nfbdef ptargdef pchalally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) cluster(ddyad) nolog
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs     = {res}   1077992
{txt}                                                Censored obs      = {res}   1075638
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs    = {res}     2,354

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}    46.99
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-14232.67                {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,916} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}war          {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4384188{col 26}{space 2} .2566681{col 37}{space 1}   -1.71{col 46}{space 3}0.088{col 54}{space 4}-.9414789{col 67}{space 3} .0646414
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5309492{col 26}{space 2}  .118171{col 37}{space 1}   -4.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.7625601{col 67}{space 3}-.2993383
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2888351{col 26}{space 2} .1795803{col 37}{space 1}    1.61{col 46}{space 3}0.108{col 54}{space 4}-.0631359{col 67}{space 3}  .640806
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4481262{col 26}{space 2} .1856718{col 37}{space 1}   -2.41{col 46}{space 3}0.016{col 54}{space 4}-.8120363{col 67}{space 3} -.084216
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0133121{col 26}{space 2} .0767886{col 37}{space 1}    0.17{col 46}{space 3}0.862{col 54}{space 4}-.1371908{col 67}{space 3} .1638151
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1338361{col 26}{space 2}  .152757{col 37}{space 1}   -0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.381{col 54}{space 4}-.4332342{col 67}{space 3} .1655621
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4353689{col 26}{space 2}  .257424{col 37}{space 1}   -1.69{col 46}{space 3}0.091{col 54}{space 4}-.9399106{col 67}{space 3} .0691729
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0003893{col 26}{space 2} .0083059{col 37}{space 1}   -0.05{col 46}{space 3}0.963{col 54}{space 4}-.0166686{col 67}{space 3} .0158901
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000501{col 26}{space 2}  .000131{col 37}{space 1}   -0.38{col 46}{space 3}0.702{col 54}{space 4}-.0003069{col 67}{space 3} .0002066
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.63e-07{col 26}{space 2} 5.40e-07{col 37}{space 1}    0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.626{col 54}{space 4}-7.95e-07{col 67}{space 3} 1.32e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.6923209{col 26}{space 2} .2840962{col 37}{space 1}   -2.44{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4}-1.249139{col 67}{space 3}-.1355026
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3508331{col 26}{space 2} .0867986{col 37}{space 1}   -4.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5209551{col 67}{space 3} -.180711
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2351963{col 26}{space 2}  .087214{col 37}{space 1}    2.70{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4}   .06426{col 67}{space 3} .4061326
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1245854{col 26}{space 2} .0918635{col 37}{space 1}   -1.36{col 46}{space 3}0.175{col 54}{space 4}-.3046347{col 67}{space 3} .0554638
{txt}{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0966426{col 26}{space 2} .0254666{col 37}{space 1}   -3.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1465563{col 67}{space 3}-.0467289
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .263558{col 26}{space 2}  .037567{col 37}{space 1}    7.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1899281{col 67}{space 3} .3371879
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3015842{col 26}{space 2} .0547437{col 37}{space 1}    5.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1942886{col 67}{space 3} .4088799
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3731045{col 26}{space 2} .0128861{col 37}{space 1}  -28.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3983608{col 67}{space 3}-.3478482
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1204552{col 26}{space 2} .0430338{col 37}{space 1}    2.80{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .0361104{col 67}{space 3} .2047999
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1470026{col 26}{space 2} .0347339{col 37}{space 1}   -4.23{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2150799{col 67}{space 3}-.0789253
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4749213{col 26}{space 2}  .085145{col 37}{space 1}   -5.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.6418025{col 67}{space 3}-.3080401
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0465877{col 26}{space 2} .0026886{col 37}{space 1}  -17.33{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0518572{col 67}{space 3}-.0413182
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000711{col 26}{space 2} .0000537{col 37}{space 1}   13.25{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006058{col 67}{space 3} .0008162
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.95e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.89e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -10.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.52e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.39e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8540584{col 26}{space 2}  .123554{col 37}{space 1}    6.91{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6118971{col 67}{space 3}  1.09622
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2764598{col 26}{space 2} .1802232{col 37}{space 1}   -1.53{col 46}{space 3}0.125{col 54}{space 4}-.6296907{col 67}{space 3} .0767711
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         rho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2696254{col 26}{space 2} .1671213{col 54}{space 4}-.5578392{col 67}{space 3} .0766206
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    2.35   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.1250
{txt}
{com}. margins, dydx(*) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res} 1,077,992
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Pr(war=1), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w ptargdef pchalally s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0999222{col 26}{space 2}  .060526{col 37}{space 1}   -1.65{col 46}{space 3}0.099{col 54}{space 4}-.2185509{col 67}{space 3} .0187065
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1210112{col 26}{space 2}   .07903{col 37}{space 1}   -1.53{col 46}{space 3}0.126{col 54}{space 4}-.2759072{col 67}{space 3} .0338847
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0658298{col 26}{space 2} .0455861{col 37}{space 1}    1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.149{col 54}{space 4}-.0235172{col 67}{space 3} .1551769
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1021346{col 26}{space 2} .0789059{col 37}{space 1}   -1.29{col 46}{space 3}0.196{col 54}{space 4}-.2567873{col 67}{space 3} .0525181
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .003034{col 26}{space 2} .0191581{col 37}{space 1}    0.16{col 46}{space 3}0.874{col 54}{space 4}-.0345151{col 67}{space 3} .0405831
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0305032{col 26}{space 2} .0425838{col 37}{space 1}   -0.72{col 46}{space 3}0.474{col 54}{space 4} -.113966{col 67}{space 3} .0529596
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0992271{col 26}{space 2} .0706594{col 37}{space 1}   -1.40{col 46}{space 3}0.160{col 54}{space 4} -.237717{col 67}{space 3} .0392629
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000887{col 26}{space 2} .0018735{col 37}{space 1}   -0.05{col 46}{space 3}0.962{col 54}{space 4}-.0037607{col 67}{space 3} .0035833
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0000114{col 26}{space 2} .0000326{col 37}{space 1}   -0.35{col 46}{space 3}0.726{col 54}{space 4}-.0000754{col 67}{space 3} .0000525
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 6.00e-08{col 26}{space 2} 1.37e-07{col 37}{space 1}    0.44{col 46}{space 3}0.662{col 54}{space 4}-2.09e-07{col 67}{space 3} 3.29e-07
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est store mod1
{txt}
{com}. heckprob war                fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem /*s_un_glo*/ yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w if year<1946, ///
>          select(dispute =   fbdef nfbdef ptargdef pchalally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) cluster(ddyad) nolog
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs     = {res}   211,128
{txt}                                                Censored obs      = {res}   210,256
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs    = {res}       872

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}   218.31
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-5379.311                {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:5,180} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}war          {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.602935{col 26}{space 2} .7876938{col 37}{space 1}   -5.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-6.146786{col 67}{space 3}-3.059083
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1454022{col 26}{space 2} .1708964{col 37}{space 1}   -0.85{col 46}{space 3}0.395{col 54}{space 4} -.480353{col 67}{space 3} .1895487
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0621672{col 26}{space 2} .2088894{col 37}{space 1}   -0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.766{col 54}{space 4} -.471583{col 67}{space 3} .3472485
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1425724{col 26}{space 2} .2101875{col 37}{space 1}   -0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.498{col 54}{space 4}-.5545323{col 67}{space 3} .2693876
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0703649{col 26}{space 2} .0874918{col 37}{space 1}   -0.80{col 46}{space 3}0.421{col 54}{space 4}-.2418456{col 67}{space 3} .1011159
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0591922{col 26}{space 2} .1768564{col 37}{space 1}    0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.738{col 54}{space 4}  -.28744{col 67}{space 3} .4058245
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.579845{col 26}{space 2} .6949222{col 37}{space 1}   -6.59{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.941867{col 67}{space 3}-3.217822
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0235699{col 26}{space 2} .0137407{col 37}{space 1}    1.72{col 46}{space 3}0.086{col 54}{space 4}-.0033615{col 67}{space 3} .0505012
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0005805{col 26}{space 2} .0002744{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.034{col 54}{space 4}-.0011184{col 67}{space 3}-.0000425
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.18e-06{col 26}{space 2} 1.49e-06{col 37}{space 1}    2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4} 2.65e-07{col 67}{space 3} 6.10e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4983722{col 26}{space 2} .5348641{col 37}{space 1}    0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.351{col 54}{space 4}-.5499422{col 67}{space 3} 1.546687
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3702987{col 26}{space 2} .2212262{col 37}{space 1}   -1.67{col 46}{space 3}0.094{col 54}{space 4}-.8038941{col 67}{space 3} .0632968
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5904502{col 26}{space 2} .2816077{col 37}{space 1}    2.10{col 46}{space 3}0.036{col 54}{space 4} .0385093{col 67}{space 3} 1.142391
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.504982{col 26}{space 2} .2866973{col 37}{space 1}   -1.76{col 46}{space 3}0.078{col 54}{space 4}-1.066898{col 67}{space 3} .0569343
{txt}{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0287052{col 26}{space 2}   .03718{col 37}{space 1}   -0.77{col 46}{space 3}0.440{col 54}{space 4}-.1015767{col 67}{space 3} .0441662
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5110164{col 26}{space 2} .0449076{col 37}{space 1}   11.38{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4229991{col 67}{space 3} .5990337
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1258683{col 26}{space 2} .0634095{col 37}{space 1}    1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.047{col 54}{space 4}  .001588{col 67}{space 3} .2501486
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2003977{col 26}{space 2}  .016088{col 37}{space 1}  -12.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2319296{col 67}{space 3}-.1688658
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2016359{col 26}{space 2} .0635293{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0771208{col 67}{space 3}  .326151
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3370963{col 26}{space 2} .0833274{col 37}{space 1}   -4.05{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5004151{col 67}{space 3}-.1737776
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0978082{col 26}{space 2} .0839217{col 37}{space 1}   -1.17{col 46}{space 3}0.244{col 54}{space 4}-.2622917{col 67}{space 3} .0666752
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0392515{col 26}{space 2} .0038404{col 37}{space 1}  -10.22{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0467786{col 67}{space 3}-.0317243
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0006352{col 26}{space 2} .0000802{col 37}{space 1}    7.92{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .000478{col 67}{space 3} .0007924
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.74e-06{col 26}{space 2} 4.71e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -5.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.66e-06{col 67}{space 3}-1.82e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7553509{col 26}{space 2}   .13762{col 37}{space 1}   -5.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.025081{col 67}{space 3}-.4856205
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5468033{col 26}{space 2} .2753555{col 37}{space 1}   -1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.047{col 54}{space 4} -1.08649{col 67}{space 3}-.0071165
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         rho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4981205{col 26}{space 2} .2070331{col 54}{space 4}-.7955935{col 67}{space 3}-.0071164
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    3.94   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0471
{txt}
{com}. margins, dydx(*) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   211,128
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Pr(war=1), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w ptargdef pchalally s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.659907{col 26}{space 2} .3568699{col 37}{space 1}   -4.65{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.359359{col 67}{space 3}-.9604551
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0524348{col 26}{space 2} .0618911{col 37}{space 1}   -0.85{col 46}{space 3}0.397{col 54}{space 4}-.1737392{col 67}{space 3} .0688696
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0224187{col 26}{space 2} .0747146{col 37}{space 1}   -0.30{col 46}{space 3}0.764{col 54}{space 4}-.1688566{col 67}{space 3} .1240191
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0514144{col 26}{space 2} .0756198{col 37}{space 1}   -0.68{col 46}{space 3}0.497{col 54}{space 4}-.1996265{col 67}{space 3} .0967978
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0253749{col 26}{space 2} .0323561{col 37}{space 1}   -0.78{col 46}{space 3}0.433{col 54}{space 4}-.0887918{col 67}{space 3} .0380419
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0213459{col 26}{space 2} .0640624{col 37}{space 1}    0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.739{col 54}{space 4}-.1042142{col 67}{space 3} .1469059
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.651581{col 26}{space 2} .3234972{col 37}{space 1}   -5.11{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-2.285623{col 67}{space 3}-1.017538
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0084997{col 26}{space 2} .0048591{col 37}{space 1}    1.75{col 46}{space 3}0.080{col 54}{space 4}-.0010238{col 67}{space 3} .0180233
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0002093{col 26}{space 2} .0000977{col 37}{space 1}   -2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.032{col 54}{space 4}-.0004009{col 67}{space 3}-.0000178
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.15e-06{col 26}{space 2} 5.34e-07{col 37}{space 1}    2.15{col 46}{space 3}0.032{col 54}{space 4} 1.02e-07{col 67}{space 3} 2.19e-06
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est store mod2
{txt}
{com}. heckprob war                fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem /*s_un_glo*/ yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w if year>1945, ///
>          select(dispute =   fbdef nfbdef ptargdef pchalally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) cluster(ddyad) nolog
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs     = {res}   866,864
{txt}                                                Censored obs      = {res}   865,382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs    = {res}     1,482

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}10{txt})     =  {res}  1225.50
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-8415.466                {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,102} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}war          {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2669315{col 26}{space 2} .2810381{col 37}{space 1}   -0.95{col 46}{space 3}0.342{col 54}{space 4}-.8177561{col 67}{space 3} .2838931
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4293675{col 26}{space 2} .1930575{col 37}{space 1}   -2.22{col 46}{space 3}0.026{col 54}{space 4}-.8077534{col 67}{space 3}-.0509817
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.560309{col 26}{space 2} .3736465{col 37}{space 1}  -12.20{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.292642{col 67}{space 3}-3.827975
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.767445{col 26}{space 2} .2744809{col 37}{space 1}  -17.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.305418{col 67}{space 3}-4.229473
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0040769{col 26}{space 2}   .15038{col 37}{space 1}    0.03{col 46}{space 3}0.978{col 54}{space 4}-.2906624{col 67}{space 3} .2988163
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5940188{col 26}{space 2} .2779921{col 37}{space 1}   -2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4}-1.138873{col 67}{space 3}-.0491643
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0053748{col 26}{space 2} .2825604{col 37}{space 1}    0.02{col 46}{space 3}0.985{col 54}{space 4}-.5484334{col 67}{space 3}  .559183
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0112633{col 26}{space 2} .0128548{col 37}{space 1}   -0.88{col 46}{space 3}0.381{col 54}{space 4}-.0364582{col 67}{space 3} .0139316
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000022{col 26}{space 2}  .000204{col 37}{space 1}    0.11{col 46}{space 3}0.914{col 54}{space 4}-.0003778{col 67}{space 3} .0004218
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.84e-07{col 26}{space 2} 7.96e-07{col 37}{space 1}    0.23{col 46}{space 3}0.817{col 54}{space 4}-1.38e-06{col 67}{space 3} 1.74e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4705451{col 26}{space 2} .4713854{col 37}{space 1}   -1.00{col 46}{space 3}0.318{col 54}{space 4}-1.394443{col 67}{space 3} .4533533
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3690897{col 26}{space 2} .0937973{col 37}{space 1}   -3.93{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5529289{col 67}{space 3}-.1852504
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2209835{col 26}{space 2}   .09299{col 37}{space 1}    2.38{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4} .0387265{col 67}{space 3} .4032405
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0025688{col 26}{space 2} .1033874{col 37}{space 1}   -0.02{col 46}{space 3}0.980{col 54}{space 4}-.2052045{col 67}{space 3} .2000668
{txt}{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0154041{col 26}{space 2} .0383566{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.688{col 54}{space 4}-.0905817{col 67}{space 3} .0597735
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0742146{col 26}{space 2}  .080004{col 37}{space 1}   -0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.354{col 54}{space 4}-.2310194{col 67}{space 3} .0825903
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4170393{col 26}{space 2} .0654476{col 37}{space 1}    6.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2887643{col 67}{space 3} .5453142
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4927145{col 26}{space 2} .0230824{col 37}{space 1}  -21.35{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.537955{col 67}{space 3}-.4474739
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0622072{col 26}{space 2} .0546963{col 37}{space 1}    1.14{col 46}{space 3}0.255{col 54}{space 4}-.0449957{col 67}{space 3} .1694101
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0566664{col 26}{space 2} .0407707{col 37}{space 1}   -1.39{col 46}{space 3}0.165{col 54}{space 4}-.1365754{col 67}{space 3} .0232426
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9256588{col 26}{space 2} .1548339{col 37}{space 1}   -5.98{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.229128{col 67}{space 3}  -.62219
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0520158{col 26}{space 2} .0034247{col 37}{space 1}  -15.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.058728{col 67}{space 3}-.0453035
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007428{col 26}{space 2} .0000652{col 37}{space 1}   11.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  .000615{col 67}{space 3} .0008706
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.95e-06{col 26}{space 2} 3.36e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -8.80{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.61e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.30e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.023854{col 26}{space 2}  .283344{col 37}{space 1}    7.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  1.46851{col 67}{space 3} 2.579198
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2938592{col 26}{space 2} .3019641{col 37}{space 1}   -0.97{col 46}{space 3}0.330{col 54}{space 4}-.8856979{col 67}{space 3} .2979795
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         rho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2856829{col 26}{space 2} .2773193{col 54}{space 4}-.7092623{col 67}{space 3} .2894625
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    0.95   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.3305
{txt}
{com}. margins, dydx(*) post
{res}
{txt}Average marginal effects{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}   866,864
{txt}Model VCE{col 14}: {res}Robust

{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression}:{space 1}{res:Pr(war=1), predict()}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}
{txt}{p2colset 1 14 16 2}{...}
{p2col:dy/dx w.r.t.}:{space 1}{res:fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w ptargdef pchalally s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26} Delta-method
{col 14}{c |}      dy/dx{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0460255{col 26}{space 2} .0560473{col 37}{space 1}   -0.82{col 46}{space 3}0.412{col 54}{space 4}-.1558762{col 67}{space 3} .0638252
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0740335{col 26}{space 2} .1107397{col 37}{space 1}   -0.67{col 46}{space 3}0.504{col 54}{space 4}-.2910793{col 67}{space 3} .1430123
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7863088{col 26}{space 2} .9070411{col 37}{space 1}   -0.87{col 46}{space 3}0.386{col 54}{space 4}-2.564077{col 67}{space 3} .9914591
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8220243{col 26}{space 2}  .969091{col 37}{space 1}   -0.85{col 46}{space 3}0.396{col 54}{space 4}-2.721408{col 67}{space 3} 1.077359
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000703{col 26}{space 2} .0267331{col 37}{space 1}    0.03{col 46}{space 3}0.979{col 54}{space 4}-.0516929{col 67}{space 3} .0530988
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1024234{col 26}{space 2} .1354957{col 37}{space 1}   -0.76{col 46}{space 3}0.450{col 54}{space 4}-.3679901{col 67}{space 3} .1631433
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0009267{col 26}{space 2} .0490682{col 37}{space 1}    0.02{col 46}{space 3}0.985{col 54}{space 4}-.0952452{col 67}{space 3} .0970987
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0019421{col 26}{space 2} .0026206{col 37}{space 1}   -0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.459{col 54}{space 4}-.0070783{col 67}{space 3} .0031942
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.79e-06{col 26}{space 2} .0000341{col 37}{space 1}    0.11{col 46}{space 3}0.912{col 54}{space 4}-.0000631{col 67}{space 3} .0000707
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.18e-08{col 26}{space 2} 1.53e-07{col 37}{space 1}    0.21{col 46}{space 3}0.835{col 54}{space 4}-2.68e-07{col 67}{space 3} 3.32e-07
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}        0{col 26}{txt}  (omitted)
{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. est store mod3
{txt}
{com}. coefplot (mod1, label(Model 1) pstyle(p1) msymbol(D)) (mod2, label(Model 2) pstyle(p4) msymbol(Sh)) (mod3, label(Model 3) pstyle(p5) msymbol(T)), /*drop(_cons)*/ keep(fbdef nfbdef) xline(0) /*xtitle(Average Substantive Effects)*/ ///
>          order(fbdef nfbdef) ///
>          coeflabel(fbdef = "Target has a defense alliance from birth" nfbdef  = "Target has a defense alliance formed after birth") ///
>          levels(80 80 80)
{res}{txt}
{com}. estimates clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *** Table 5
. 
. heckprob war                fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo /*yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w*/, ///
>          select(dispute =   fbdef nfbdef ptargdef pchalally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) cluster(ddyad) nolog
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs     = {res}   1077992
{txt}                                                Censored obs      = {res}   1075638
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs    = {res}     2,354

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}8{txt})      =  {res}    44.52
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-14234.15                {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,916} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}war          {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3686849{col 26}{space 2} .2559196{col 37}{space 1}   -1.44{col 46}{space 3}0.150{col 54}{space 4} -.870278{col 67}{space 3} .1329082
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.593135{col 26}{space 2} .1224896{col 37}{space 1}   -4.84{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.8332103{col 67}{space 3}-.3530598
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .210317{col 26}{space 2} .1778867{col 37}{space 1}    1.18{col 46}{space 3}0.237{col 54}{space 4}-.1383344{col 67}{space 3} .5589684
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4896738{col 26}{space 2} .1816436{col 37}{space 1}   -2.70{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4}-.8456887{col 67}{space 3}-.1336588
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0022241{col 26}{space 2} .0803674{col 37}{space 1}   -0.03{col 46}{space 3}0.978{col 54}{space 4}-.1597413{col 67}{space 3} .1552931
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.132584{col 26}{space 2} .1521829{col 37}{space 1}   -0.87{col 46}{space 3}0.384{col 54}{space 4}-.4308569{col 67}{space 3} .1656889
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4991491{col 26}{space 2} .2546127{col 37}{space 1}   -1.96{col 46}{space 3}0.050{col 54}{space 4}-.9981807{col 67}{space 3}-.0001174
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2250316{col 26}{space 2} .3116151{col 37}{space 1}   -0.72{col 46}{space 3}0.470{col 54}{space 4}-.8357859{col 67}{space 3} .3857227
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3768159{col 26}{space 2} .4736644{col 37}{space 1}   -0.80{col 46}{space 3}0.426{col 54}{space 4}-1.305181{col 67}{space 3} .5515493
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3507069{col 26}{space 2} .0868733{col 37}{space 1}   -4.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5209754{col 67}{space 3}-.1804384
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2355506{col 26}{space 2} .0872656{col 37}{space 1}    2.70{col 46}{space 3}0.007{col 54}{space 4} .0645132{col 67}{space 3} .4065881
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1247246{col 26}{space 2} .0919278{col 37}{space 1}   -1.36{col 46}{space 3}0.175{col 54}{space 4}-.3048997{col 67}{space 3} .0554505
{txt}{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0968486{col 26}{space 2}  .025452{col 37}{space 1}   -3.81{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1467336{col 67}{space 3}-.0469636
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2637273{col 26}{space 2} .0375781{col 37}{space 1}    7.02{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1900755{col 67}{space 3} .3373791
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3015964{col 26}{space 2} .0547403{col 37}{space 1}    5.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .1943073{col 67}{space 3} .4088854
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3730567{col 26}{space 2} .0128863{col 37}{space 1}  -28.95{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.3983133{col 67}{space 3}-.3478001
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1204681{col 26}{space 2} .0430355{col 37}{space 1}    2.80{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} .0361201{col 67}{space 3} .2048161
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1469117{col 26}{space 2} .0347315{col 37}{space 1}   -4.23{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.2149843{col 67}{space 3}-.0788392
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4738336{col 26}{space 2} .0854793{col 37}{space 1}   -5.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}  -.64137{col 67}{space 3}-.3062972
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0465778{col 26}{space 2} .0026889{col 37}{space 1}  -17.32{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0518479{col 67}{space 3}-.0413077
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007107{col 26}{space 2} .0000537{col 37}{space 1}   13.24{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006055{col 67}{space 3} .0008159
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.95e-06{col 26}{space 2} 2.89e-07{col 37}{space 1}  -10.21{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.52e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.39e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8528865{col 26}{space 2} .1237808{col 37}{space 1}    6.89{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .6102806{col 67}{space 3} 1.095492
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3081603{col 26}{space 2} .1663292{col 37}{space 1}   -1.85{col 46}{space 3}0.064{col 54}{space 4}-.6341595{col 67}{space 3}  .017839
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         rho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2987625{col 26}{space 2} .1514828{col 54}{space 4}-.5609097{col 67}{space 3} .0178371
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    3.43   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0639
{txt}
{com}. est store mod1
{txt}
{com}. heckprob war                fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo /*yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w*/ if year<1946, ///
>          select(dispute =   fbdef nfbdef ptargdef pchalally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) cluster(ddyad) nolog
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs     = {res}   211,128
{txt}                                                Censored obs      = {res}   210,256
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs    = {res}       872

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}8{txt})      =  {res}   325.58
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-5383.042                {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:5,180} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}war          {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.583609{col 26}{space 2} .6587103{col 37}{space 1}   -6.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.874657{col 67}{space 3} -3.29256
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1575941{col 26}{space 2} .1724521{col 37}{space 1}   -0.91{col 46}{space 3}0.361{col 54}{space 4}-.4955941{col 67}{space 3} .1804059
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0799061{col 26}{space 2} .2016298{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.692{col 54}{space 4}-.4750932{col 67}{space 3} .3152811
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2444392{col 26}{space 2}  .206868{col 37}{space 1}   -1.18{col 46}{space 3}0.237{col 54}{space 4}-.6498931{col 67}{space 3} .1610148
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0973227{col 26}{space 2} .0913032{col 37}{space 1}   -1.07{col 46}{space 3}0.286{col 54}{space 4}-.2762737{col 67}{space 3} .0816283
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0848492{col 26}{space 2} .1821125{col 37}{space 1}    0.47{col 46}{space 3}0.641{col 54}{space 4}-.2720846{col 67}{space 3} .4417831
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.883665{col 26}{space 2} .5824054{col 37}{space 1}   -8.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-6.025159{col 67}{space 3}-3.742171
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1772583{col 26}{space 2} .4543263{col 37}{space 1}   -0.39{col 46}{space 3}0.696{col 54}{space 4}-1.067722{col 67}{space 3} .7132049
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .727204{col 26}{space 2} .6995606{col 37}{space 1}    1.04{col 46}{space 3}0.299{col 54}{space 4}-.6439096{col 67}{space 3} 2.098318
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3701813{col 26}{space 2} .2212432{col 37}{space 1}   -1.67{col 46}{space 3}0.094{col 54}{space 4}  -.80381{col 67}{space 3} .0634475
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5900817{col 26}{space 2} .2816201{col 37}{space 1}    2.10{col 46}{space 3}0.036{col 54}{space 4} .0381165{col 67}{space 3} 1.142047
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5046824{col 26}{space 2} .2867236{col 37}{space 1}   -1.76{col 46}{space 3}0.078{col 54}{space 4} -1.06665{col 67}{space 3} .0572855
{txt}{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0290319{col 26}{space 2} .0372396{col 37}{space 1}   -0.78{col 46}{space 3}0.436{col 54}{space 4}-.1020202{col 67}{space 3} .0439564
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5113854{col 26}{space 2}  .044788{col 37}{space 1}   11.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .4236026{col 67}{space 3} .5991682
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .1261871{col 26}{space 2} .0634129{col 37}{space 1}    1.99{col 46}{space 3}0.047{col 54}{space 4}    .0019{col 67}{space 3} .2504742
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2004107{col 26}{space 2} .0160821{col 37}{space 1}  -12.46{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.231931{col 67}{space 3}-.1688904
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2015438{col 26}{space 2} .0635283{col 37}{space 1}    3.17{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} .0770306{col 67}{space 3} .3260571
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3368707{col 26}{space 2} .0833259{col 37}{space 1}   -4.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5001864{col 67}{space 3}-.1735549
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0961933{col 26}{space 2} .0837705{col 37}{space 1}   -1.15{col 46}{space 3}0.251{col 54}{space 4}-.2603803{col 67}{space 3} .0679938
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0391153{col 26}{space 2} .0038587{col 37}{space 1}  -10.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0466781{col 67}{space 3}-.0315524
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  .000631{col 26}{space 2} .0000807{col 37}{space 1}    7.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0004729{col 67}{space 3} .0007891
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-06{col 26}{space 2} 4.73e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -5.74{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.64e-06{col 67}{space 3}-1.79e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.756787{col 26}{space 2} .1374135{col 37}{space 1}   -5.51{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.026112{col 67}{space 3}-.4874616
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4686088{col 26}{space 2} .2558988{col 37}{space 1}   -1.83{col 46}{space 3}0.067{col 54}{space 4}-.9701612{col 67}{space 3} .0329435
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         rho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4370746{col 26}{space 2} .2070133{col 54}{space 4}-.7487751{col 67}{space 3} .0329316
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    3.35   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0671
{txt}
{com}. est store mod2
{txt}
{com}. heckprob war                fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo /*yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w*/ if year>1945, ///
>          select(dispute =   fbdef nfbdef ptargdef pchalally pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo peaceyrs peaceyrs2 peaceyrs3) cluster(ddyad) nolog
{res}
{txt}Probit model with sample selection              Number of obs     = {res}   866,864
{txt}                                                Censored obs      = {res}   865,382
                                                {txt}Uncensored obs    = {res}     1,482

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}8{txt})      =  {res}   901.08
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res} -8417.74                {txt}Prob > chi2       =     {res}0.0000

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:27,102} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}war          {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1080725{col 26}{space 2} .2789036{col 37}{space 1}   -0.39{col 46}{space 3}0.698{col 54}{space 4}-.6547135{col 67}{space 3} .4385684
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5897543{col 26}{space 2} .1765561{col 37}{space 1}   -3.34{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.9357979{col 67}{space 3}-.2437108
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.512357{col 26}{space 2} .5049725{col 37}{space 1}   -8.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.502085{col 67}{space 3}-3.522629
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.657569{col 26}{space 2} .3440652{col 37}{space 1}  -13.54{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-5.331924{col 67}{space 3}-3.983213
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0459147{col 26}{space 2} .1412597{col 37}{space 1}    0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.745{col 54}{space 4}-.2309492{col 67}{space 3} .3227787
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.572657{col 26}{space 2} .2713696{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4}-1.104532{col 67}{space 3}-.0407823
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0936824{col 26}{space 2} .2549592{col 37}{space 1}   -0.37{col 46}{space 3}0.713{col 54}{space 4}-.5933934{col 67}{space 3} .4060285
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0254012{col 26}{space 2} .4348481{col 37}{space 1}    0.06{col 46}{space 3}0.953{col 54}{space 4}-.8268854{col 67}{space 3} .8776879
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.5413297{col 26}{space 2} .7414445{col 37}{space 1}   -0.73{col 46}{space 3}0.465{col 54}{space 4}-1.994534{col 67}{space 3} .9118748
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}dispute      {txt}{c |}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3678621{col 26}{space 2} .0942449{col 37}{space 1}   -3.90{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5525787{col 67}{space 3}-.1831455
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .2225948{col 26}{space 2} .0934126{col 37}{space 1}    2.38{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4} .0395096{col 67}{space 3} .4056801
{txt}{space 4}ptargdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0042648{col 26}{space 2} .1038547{col 37}{space 1}   -0.04{col 46}{space 3}0.967{col 54}{space 4}-.2078162{col 67}{space 3} .1992866
{txt}{space 3}pchalally {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0151528{col 26}{space 2} .0382583{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.692{col 54}{space 4}-.0901377{col 67}{space 3}  .059832
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0742386{col 26}{space 2}      .08{col 37}{space 1}   -0.93{col 46}{space 3}0.353{col 54}{space 4}-.2310356{col 67}{space 3} .0825584
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4170669{col 26}{space 2} .0654523{col 37}{space 1}    6.37{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .2887827{col 67}{space 3} .5453511
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4926796{col 26}{space 2} .0230709{col 37}{space 1}  -21.36{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.5378977{col 67}{space 3}-.4474615
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0621969{col 26}{space 2} .0546959{col 37}{space 1}    1.14{col 46}{space 3}0.255{col 54}{space 4} -.045005{col 67}{space 3} .1693988
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0565521{col 26}{space 2} .0407649{col 37}{space 1}   -1.39{col 46}{space 3}0.165{col 54}{space 4}-.1364498{col 67}{space 3} .0233455
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9250613{col 26}{space 2} .1549334{col 37}{space 1}   -5.97{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-1.228725{col 67}{space 3}-.6213974
{txt}{space 4}peaceyrs {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0520072{col 26}{space 2} .0034246{col 37}{space 1}  -15.19{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0587193{col 67}{space 3}-.0452952
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0007425{col 26}{space 2} .0000652{col 37}{space 1}   11.39{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0006148{col 67}{space 3} .0008703
{txt}{space 3}peaceyrs3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.95e-06{col 26}{space 2} 3.36e-07{col 37}{space 1}   -8.80{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.61e-06{col 67}{space 3}-2.30e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 2.023032{col 26}{space 2} .2833152{col 37}{space 1}    7.14{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 1.467744{col 67}{space 3}  2.57832
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
     /athrho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4527798{col 26}{space 2} .2610466{col 37}{space 1}   -1.73{col 46}{space 3}0.083{col 54}{space 4}-.9644216{col 67}{space 3} .0588621
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
         rho {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.4241813{col 26}{space 2} .2140765{col 54}{space 4}-.7462427{col 67}{space 3} .0587942
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
Wald test of indep. eqns. (rho = 0): chi2({res}1{txt}) = {res}    3.01   {txt}Prob > chi2 = {res}0.0828
{txt}
{com}. est store mod3
{txt}
{com}. esttab mod*, b(3) se(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) stats(N ll r2) keep(fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo _cons)
{res}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)             (3)   
{txt}                      war             war             war   
{txt}{hline 60}
{res}war                                                         {txt}
{txt}fbdef       {res}       -0.369          -4.584***       -0.108   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.256{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.659{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.279{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nfbdef      {res}       -0.593***       -0.158          -0.590***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.122{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.172{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.177{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchaloff    {res}        0.210          -0.080          -4.512***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.178{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.202{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.505{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchalneu    {res}       -0.490***       -0.244          -4.658***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.182{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.207{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.344{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ln_distance {res}       -0.002          -0.097           0.046   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.080{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.091{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.141{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}capprop     {res}       -0.133           0.085          -0.573** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.152{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.182{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.271{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}jdem        {res}       -0.499**        -4.884***       -0.094   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.255{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.582{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.255{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}s_un_glo    {res}       -0.225          -0.177           0.025   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.312{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.454{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.435{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}       -0.377           0.727          -0.541   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.474{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.700{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.741{txt:)}}   {txt}
{hline 60}
{res}dispute                                                     {txt}
{txt}fbdef       {res}       -0.351***       -0.370*         -0.368***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.087{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.221{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.094{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nfbdef      {res}        0.236***        0.590**         0.223** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.087{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.282{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.093{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchaloff    {res}        0.264***        0.511***       -0.074   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.038{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.045{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.080{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchalneu    {res}        0.302***        0.126**         0.417***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.055{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.063{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.065{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}ln_distance {res}       -0.373***       -0.200***       -0.493***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.013{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.016{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.023{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}capprop     {res}        0.120***        0.202***        0.062   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.043{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.064{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.055{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}jdem        {res}       -0.147***       -0.337***       -0.057   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.035{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.083{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.041{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}s_un_glo    {res}       -0.474***       -0.096          -0.925***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.085{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.084{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.155{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}        0.853***       -0.757***        2.023***{txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.124{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.137{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.283{txt:)}}   {txt}
{hline 60}
{res}athrho                                                      {txt}
{txt}_cons       {res}       -0.308*         -0.469*         -0.453*  {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.166{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.256{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.261{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}N           {res}  1077992.000      211128.000      866864.000   {txt}
{txt}ll          {res}   -14234.151       -5383.042       -8417.740   {txt}
{txt}r2          {res}                                                {txt}
{txt}{hline 60}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. estimates clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. *** Table 6 ***
. 
. logit war fbdef nfbdef pchaloff ///
>         pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if dispute == 1, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-391.64651}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-367.90162}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-363.57987}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-363.50124}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-363.50106}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-363.50106}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     2,354
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}11{txt}){col 67}= {res}     51.31
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-363.50106{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.0719

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:836} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.428369{col 26}{space 2} .5979108{col 37}{space 1}   -2.39{col 46}{space 3}0.017{col 54}{space 4}-2.600253{col 67}{space 3}-.2564856
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.234001{col 26}{space 2} .3112399{col 37}{space 1}   -3.96{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -1.84402{col 67}{space 3}-.6239819
{txt}{space 4}pchaloff {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6031147{col 26}{space 2} .3791951{col 37}{space 1}    1.59{col 46}{space 3}0.112{col 54}{space 4}-.1400941{col 67}{space 3} 1.346323
{txt}{space 4}pchalneu {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.7710619{col 26}{space 2} .4693401{col 37}{space 1}   -1.64{col 46}{space 3}0.100{col 54}{space 4}-1.690952{col 67}{space 3} .1488277
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2059127{col 26}{space 2} .0936867{col 37}{space 1}   -2.20{col 46}{space 3}0.028{col 54}{space 4}-.3895353{col 67}{space 3}-.0222901
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.2474008{col 26}{space 2} .3343863{col 37}{space 1}   -0.74{col 46}{space 3}0.459{col 54}{space 4}-.9027858{col 67}{space 3} .4079842
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -1.18293{col 26}{space 2}  .682484{col 37}{space 1}   -1.73{col 46}{space 3}0.083{col 54}{space 4}-2.520574{col 67}{space 3} .1547145
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.8864421{col 26}{space 2} .6667966{col 37}{space 1}   -1.33{col 46}{space 3}0.184{col 54}{space 4}-2.193339{col 67}{space 3} .4204552
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} -.012814{col 26}{space 2} .0181997{col 37}{space 1}   -0.70{col 46}{space 3}0.481{col 54}{space 4}-.0484848{col 67}{space 3} .0228569
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0000451{col 26}{space 2} .0003035{col 37}{space 1}    0.15{col 46}{space 3}0.882{col 54}{space 4}-.0005498{col 67}{space 3} .0006399
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.71e-08{col 26}{space 2} 1.29e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -0.02{col 46}{space 3}0.983{col 54}{space 4}-2.56e-06{col 67}{space 3} 2.50e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0844744{col 26}{space 2} .9872809{col 37}{space 1}   -0.09{col 46}{space 3}0.932{col 54}{space 4}-2.019509{col 67}{space 3} 1.850561
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}.         est store mod4
{txt}
{com}. keep if year>1945 
{txt}(211,128 observations deleted)

{com}. logit war fbdef nfbdef /*pchaloff*/ ///
>         /*pchalneu*/ ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo ///
>         yearout1w yearout2w yearout3w  /*yr7 yr12 yr28 yr33-yr34 yr36 yr38 yr41 yr44-yr46 yr48 yr50 yr55 yr61 yr63 yr68 yr70 yr78-yr79 yr81 yr83 yr85 yr88 yr91 yr94 yr96-yr97 yr99 ///
>                                      yr104-yr105 yr114 yr116 yr119 yr123-yr129 yr133 yr135 yr140 yr46 yr149-yr152 yr154 yr156 yr159-yr160 yr162-yr163 yr165 yr167 yr171 yr177-yr178*/ ///
>         if dispute == 1, cluster(ddyad)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-138.86422}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-130.72524}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-122.89413}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-122.86316}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-122.86313}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-122.86313}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 49}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}     1,482
{txt}{col 49}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}     29.29
{txt}{col 49}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0006
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-122.86313{txt}{col 49}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.1152

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:558} clusters in ddyad)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}         war{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}fbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9424712{col 26}{space 2} .6767916{col 37}{space 1}   -1.39{col 46}{space 3}0.164{col 54}{space 4}-2.268958{col 67}{space 3} .3840159
{txt}{space 6}nfbdef {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.9964902{col 26}{space 2} .4614386{col 37}{space 1}   -2.16{col 46}{space 3}0.031{col 54}{space 4}-1.900893{col 67}{space 3}-.0920871
{txt}{space 1}ln_distance {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.3471099{col 26}{space 2} .1633851{col 37}{space 1}   -2.12{col 46}{space 3}0.034{col 54}{space 4}-.6673388{col 67}{space 3}-.0268809
{txt}{space 5}capprop {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.564182{col 26}{space 2} .6713127{col 37}{space 1}   -2.33{col 46}{space 3}0.020{col 54}{space 4} -2.87993{col 67}{space 3}-.2484332
{txt}{space 8}jdem {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0468192{col 26}{space 2} .6864913{col 37}{space 1}    0.07{col 46}{space 3}0.946{col 54}{space 4}-1.298679{col 67}{space 3} 1.392318
{txt}{space 4}s_un_glo {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.155236{col 26}{space 2} 1.180835{col 37}{space 1}   -0.98{col 46}{space 3}0.328{col 54}{space 4} -3.46963{col 67}{space 3} 1.159157
{txt}{space 3}yearout1w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0396969{col 26}{space 2} .0322684{col 37}{space 1}   -1.23{col 46}{space 3}0.219{col 54}{space 4}-.1029419{col 67}{space 3}  .023548
{txt}{space 3}yearout2w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0001986{col 26}{space 2} .0005384{col 37}{space 1}    0.37{col 46}{space 3}0.712{col 54}{space 4}-.0008566{col 67}{space 3} .0012538
{txt}{space 3}yearout3w {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.73e-07{col 26}{space 2} 2.11e-06{col 37}{space 1}   -0.08{col 46}{space 3}0.934{col 54}{space 4}-4.31e-06{col 67}{space 3} 3.96e-06
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 1.360682{col 26}{space 2} 1.630713{col 37}{space 1}    0.83{col 46}{space 3}0.404{col 54}{space 4}-1.835457{col 67}{space 3} 4.556821
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. est store mod6
{txt}
{com}. esttab mod*, b(3) se(3) star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) stats(N ll r2) keep(fbdef nfbdef pchaloff pchalneu ln_distance capprop jdem s_un_glo _cons) 
{res}
{txt}{hline 44}
{txt}                      (1)             (2)   
{txt}                      war             war   
{txt}{hline 44}
{res}war                                         {txt}
{txt}fbdef       {res}       -1.428**        -0.942   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.598{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.677{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}nfbdef      {res}       -1.234***       -0.996** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.311{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.461{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}pchaloff    {res}        0.603                   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.379{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}pchalneu    {res}       -0.771                   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.469{txt:)}}                   {txt}

{txt}ln_distance {res}       -0.206**        -0.347** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.094{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.163{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}capprop     {res}       -0.247          -1.564** {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.334{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.671{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}jdem        {res}       -1.183*          0.047   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.682{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.686{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}s_un_glo    {res}       -0.886          -1.155   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.667{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.181{txt:)}}   {txt}

{txt}_cons       {res}       -0.084           1.361   {txt}
            {res} {ralign 12:{txt:(}0.987{txt:)}}    {ralign 12:{txt:(}1.631{txt:)}}   {txt}
{txt}{hline 44}
{txt}N           {res}     2354.000        1482.000   {txt}
{txt}ll          {res}     -363.501        -122.863   {txt}
{txt}r2          {res}                                {txt}
{txt}{hline 44}
{txt}Standard errors in parentheses
{txt}* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

{com}. estimates clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. 
. 
. exit, clear
